00:04 - The following program is sponsored in part by "Customers Bank.

00:13 - " Welcome to this week's edition of "Journal's Roundtable.

00:15 - " I'm Francine Schurzer.

00:16 - Our guests this week are Jordan Wilkie, Democracy

00:19 - Reporter with WITF in Harrisburg, Carmen Brussels-Laczynski, multi-platform reporter

00:25 - with W-H-Y-Y News in Philadelphia, and Carter Walker reporter with WITF-B.

00:29 - Carter will start with you, roughly, a month away from the general election.

00:33 - What are the biggest issues that will influence voters this year?

00:36 - Yeah, well, I think voters right now, they're

00:39 - thinking about just getting their ballot requested and into counties.

00:43 - As you know, we've had a lot of back and forth

00:45 - on mail ballots, so they're thinking about that.

00:48 - But obviously, I think the number one issue that we're seeing across the state, we saw

00:52 - some polling from F&M this morning was the economy.

00:55 - I was a big issue, but those are particularly

00:57 - big in the 10th and 7th congressional districts

01:00 - where we have competitive races, though I'm sure voters everywhere

01:03 - are thinking about that when they're heading to the polls.

01:06 - Carmen, your thoughts on biggest influencers in the election this year?

01:10 - Yeah, you know, I think that's right, that

01:13 - it's primarily the economy, although I think one of the biggest determining factors

01:17 - that's happening right now from what I see on

01:20 - the ground here in Philadelphia when it comes

01:24 - to the governor's race and the midterm election races is also enthusiasm.

01:29 - There's a pretty big enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans right now.

01:33 - I've been to both events that Governor Shapiro was here for and that state security,

01:39 - the Republican nominee for governor were

01:43 - here in, you know, they felt very differently right now.

01:47 - Shapiro, when he was here in Philadelphia, he had crowds of hundreds of people,

01:51 - Shapiro was not able to kind of command quite that level of excitement.

01:58 - I think Carmen's right, yeah, we're seeing

02:00 - that not just in the on-the-ground experiences

02:02 - that he's having, but I was looking at some polling this morning from the inquirer and

02:06 - the New York Times that found that one in four

02:09 - GOP voters weren't even aware of candidate

02:11 - Garrity and who she was. Obviously, that's a

02:13 - big hill to overcome, not only that, but there's

02:16 - a huge fundraising gap between the two.

02:18 - Shapiro raised over $13 million in the last cycle

02:20 - compared to a little under two for Ms.

02:23 - Garrity. So clearly there's the enthusiasm gap that Carmen is talking about.

02:27 - Jordan, what do you think will influence your motivate voters?

02:30 - Yeah, I mean, the polling is pretty clear and

02:33 - the excitement on the ground is pretty clear.

02:35 - People are excited about gas prices and not excited in a good way. People are excited

02:41 - about how much things cost the grocery store, and again, not in a good way.

02:46 - These are signs that people are upset with

02:48 - the trend of the economy over the last year,

02:51 - and there was something relatively remarkable in

02:53 - the recent F&M poll, which focused specifically

02:55 - on PA-10, which is Dauphin County, parts of

02:58 - the Cumberland in New York, and PA-7, which is

03:01 - Lehigh, Northampton, and carbon, and parts of Monroe County, 55% of respondents in the

03:08 - 7th said they are worse off than they were a

03:12 - year ago, 45% in the 10th. That is, historically,

03:16 - a bad trend for incumbents and the incumbent party.

03:20 - And so what you're going to see is

03:22 - Republicans trying to pivot some of the conversation,

03:26 - and what we're going to see in this last

03:29 - month in change of the election cycle is a

03:32 - really big push for narrative control about what

03:35 - people care about and what people are talking about.

03:37 - You're already starting to see that in some

03:40 - of the uptick around advertisements related to

03:44 - the Perry campaign, not from the Perry campaign,

03:48 - but from an organization on his behalf, trying

03:50 - to attack Janelle Stelson on immigration,

03:54 - and a very aggressive and not necessarily factual

03:57 - way, and there are other ads trying to tie

04:00 - Janelle Stelson to more liberal Democrats. And I think anyone who is a more liberal

04:07 - Democrat on the AOC side of things would already

04:10 - know that that Janelle Stelson is not part of

04:13 - that wing of party. And so it's going to be this

04:16 - really significant narrative battle.

04:19 - And I also think, you know, as in every election and my

04:22 - adult lifetime, there's going to be a significant

04:24 - legal battle, but exactly how that plays out

04:26 - changes every cycle. Carter, I want to talk briefly

04:29 - before we get into some more specific races and

04:31 - candidates about some of the election integrity

04:34 - issues, which I know you've written about.

04:35 - Over the summer, the Trump administration said his

04:38 - Department of Homeland Security identified roughly

04:40 - 250,000 non-citizen voters in several states,

04:43 - including Pennsylvania. What do we know about the accuracy of that statement?

04:47 - Yeah, well, that, like you said, we were one

04:49 - of those four states that the president named.

04:51 - We got a letter from DHS the day after he

04:53 - made that announcement saying that there were

04:55 - just under 15,000 what they called potential

04:58 - non-citizens on Pennsylvania's voter roll.

05:01 - And since then, the state has basically said, you

05:03 - know, show us your math. They've been struggling

05:06 - to get a clear answer from the Department of

05:08 - Homeland Security on exactly how they conducted

05:11 - that search to find out exactly how accurate it is.

05:14 - Last week, you got some copies of emails

05:16 - from the Department of Homeland Security to the

05:18 - state that did provide a little bit more clarity.

05:20 - And they said that they had matched the folks

05:23 - on our voter rolls with their own databases of

05:25 - non-citizens using first middle and last name,

05:29 - along with birthday phone number and address,

05:32 - which in a lot of cases can provide a good match.

05:35 - But in for voting, it is what voting officials

05:39 - call a fuzzy match because those don't always align up to be the exact same person.

05:44 - They try to look for using Social Security number matches

05:48 - or driver's license number matches, which

05:51 - Department of Homeland Security doesn't have

05:53 - because of course the state has not turned over that

05:56 - information to the federal government.

05:58 - So that makes that match less reliable.

06:00 - And what was interesting that we found in this email that we

06:03 - got from the state from DHS last week is when

06:06 - the agency had originally told Pennsylvania that

06:09 - it had done this matching process and identified

06:11 - potential non-citizens. They had mentioned

06:13 - using Social Security numbers for some of those

06:16 - voters, but now they're saying that they didn't use it.

06:19 - So the state is still waiting on getting that actual list to do its own search.

06:23 - But as of right now, I think election officials

06:26 - everywhere are highly skeptical of those claims,

06:28 - not only because the Trump administration,

06:30 - the Department of Homeland Security's methodology

06:32 - hasn't worked out successfully in the past for

06:35 - finding these people, but also just because

06:37 - historically instances of non-citizens voting and

06:41 - registering has been very rare. Yeah, you know,

06:43 - this is not the first time anyone has looked to see

06:47 - how many non-citizens are on voter rolls or who

06:50 - have registered to vote. People have been trying to

06:53 - find these numbers and and use any instances to as

06:57 - a political cudgel to then pass more restrictive voting laws.

07:01 - The data and the evidence that we found

07:04 - over decades is that vanishingly few non-citizens ever make it onto the voter rolls.

07:10 - That usually happens as a mistake and even fewer of those ever end up voting.

07:15 - And anyone, whether they're a non-citizen or for any reason, if they vote illegally,

07:22 - it's really not a very good strategy.

07:24 - They will be found, the punishments are relatively severe,

07:27 - particularly for non-citizens. And knowing this history, Carter and I were actually

07:35 - live on air immediately after President Trump

07:38 - made his national address about elections.

07:40 - We didn't know what he was going to say going into it

07:43 - and we heard it. And I looked at that transcript

07:46 - again recently and after he ended, we sort of

07:48 - looked around at each other and said, well, that

07:52 - seems unlikely because he had made claims similar to,

07:54 - oh, we found hundreds of thousands of non-citizens on the rolls.

07:58 - We're still waiting to find or see

08:00 - any robust evidence of what is presented from the government.

08:05 - And the government is pulling out other reports.

08:07 - The Census Bureau, just the other day, put out a report saying they found likely

08:12 - non-citizen voters and significant numbers

08:15 - from data sets that don't seem to be very robust.

08:18 - And experts are already very clearly questioning those numbers.

08:23 - So it is, again, for the, I mean, every year since 2016, the Trump administration

08:30 - has made significant claims that have not

08:32 - been backed up by evidence about the rate of

08:34 - non-citizen registration and voting. And so far, you know, in the last 10 years or so,

08:39 - hasn't really played out. So we're waiting to

08:41 - see if there's evidence that it will play out

08:43 - this time, but not yet. Carmen, earlier this month, the U.

08:46 - S. Supreme Court rejected the president's

08:48 - bid to restrict mail-in votes. Do you think that

08:51 - confusion, or perhaps misinformation regarding

08:54 - the election integrity will have any impact on voter turnout?

08:57 - I mean, it's a good question.

08:58 - I mean, that's certainly why we've been regularly reporting

09:01 - on that to make sure that people understand

09:03 - that in the past, that they can vote this election

09:07 - as they have in the past, that there is no changes.

09:10 - Alshmitt has certainly, you know, Secretary

09:13 - of State Alshmitt has gone on to the airwaves

09:16 - and repeatedly put out that same information.

09:18 - So, you know, if anybody's listening here and now

09:21 - and is confused, you should definitely vote with

09:24 - your mail ballot the same way that you have in

09:26 - the past, nothing has changed for this particular election.

09:29 - We'll see about future elections who knows,

09:32 - but for now, everything works out the same.

09:34 - But yeah, there are concerns that there could be some confusion.

09:37 - And, but also, you know, people should know that there are places they can actually

09:42 - take their mail and ballot and take it to their,

09:45 - you know, to their local polling location.

09:48 - So, you know, there are concerns that may be,

09:49 - because one of the things about Pennsylvania is,

09:51 - if you do mail and you're about, it has to be there

09:54 - by election day. So, if you, you know, if you're

09:57 - concerned about that or you're concerned about

09:58 - any problems, you can actually still hand deliver

10:00 - your mail ballot. Carmen, actually, yeah, that's

10:03 - all a great point. I mean, the election officials

10:06 - have been very clear that voting is not going to

10:08 - be affected by what the Trump administration says

10:10 - and they're still going to handle their processes as normal.

10:13 - I did see some information this morning, the Harvard Shorenstein Center released

10:17 - a new poll that I think does indicate there is a

10:19 - little bit of concern because of what's been going on in the news.

10:23 - They surveyed voters to show, you know, have you been following the news very

10:26 - closely about what's been going on with mail

10:28 - voting and found that the folks who have been

10:31 - following it the most closely were 36, 36% of them

10:35 - said it was probably going to affect their plan to vote.

10:38 - So, even though Carmen's right, it's not going to actually affect our process

10:41 - of how we vote by mail and how we handle those ballots.

10:43 - Doesn't seem like some people have the

10:45 - perception that it maybe isn't worth the risk for them.

10:48 - And I guess we all have work to do.

10:50 - And like all things, elections, we're not going to

10:54 - know how it's going to play out till it plays out,

10:56 - but we do get little breadcrumbs along the way.

11:00 - So, the Department of State puts out a daily update

11:04 - on their vote by mail data and that indicates

11:08 - how many ballots they're sending out, how many

11:10 - ballots they're getting back. And with some data

11:13 - crunching after the election, you'll be able to

11:15 - see how many people actually returned their mail in ballots.

11:18 - You know, people might have signed up months and months ago to get that, but then

11:21 - decided to actually vote in a different way.

11:22 - So, we'll see how many people receive those ballots

11:25 - or signed up for those ballots, but then decided

11:27 - to vote in person. One thing that I want people to

11:29 - know who are thinking about voting on election

11:31 - day, I just had this conversation after I got my haircut.

11:34 - I met a guy on the street who noticed my

11:36 - press badge and he wanted to talk about elections.

11:38 - And he said, "No way is he voting by mail this year.

11:41 - He just doesn't trust anymore.

11:42 - " So, he was going to be there first thing on

11:44 - election day right there in the morning.

11:46 - I said, "Well, you know, that's when the lines are going to be locked.

11:50 - " So, people have flexibility on election day and they don't want to wait in line.

11:53 - That mid-morning or mid-afternoon is the time where

11:55 - the lines are going to be longest.

11:57 - You're going to be easiest in and out. So, people are thinking

11:59 - about election day. They have flexibility.

12:01 - They'll help themselves and other people if they can go

12:03 - at those low volume times. Carmen, I want to get

12:06 - to you to talk a little bit about the Republican

12:08 - midterm convention that happened a few weeks ago.

12:11 - And the big news was that Democratic Pennsylvania U.

12:15 - S. Senator John Fedom had made good appearance. What impact did his appearance

12:18 - have on his political future? Well, we're certainly

12:21 - going to find that out. It certainly didn't help.

12:24 - But obviously, he's getting a lot of criticism from Democrats to begin with anyway.

12:29 - And there's a lot of speculation that he might

12:33 - jump ship and go to basically re-register as a Republican.

12:38 - He's repeatedly said that he's not.

12:40 - But I have to imagine him appearing there

12:44 - to ostensibly support his "friend" David

12:48 - McCormick, the other senator, the junior senator

12:52 - of Pennsylvania David McCormick. Is that going

12:56 - to help when it comes a couple of years when he

13:00 - is up for the election? So, it is a good question.

13:04 - Now, I would say that the fact that he really kind of bashed Democrats in his own

13:10 - little speech where he was again ostensibly there

13:13 - to introduce and support his friend, David McCormick,

13:16 - was probably the thing that that's going to hurt him most.

13:19 - I mean, it can just see that being put in ads in the future from Conor Lamb,

13:24 - whoever ends up running against him.

13:27 - But yeah, it is pretty interesting. Obviously, a lot of

13:30 - people are not happy with him right now.

13:32 - A lot of Democrats that I talked to, but they weren't

13:35 - happy with him even before he was there, before he appeared.

13:39 - And we talked a little bit earlier in the program, looking at some polling and

13:44 - some general unhappiness with some of the Trump

13:47 - administration policies in the way that the

13:49 - economy is doing right now. What does it mean for

13:52 - incumbents that appeared at this midterm

13:54 - convention, aligning themselves with the president,

13:57 - in particular, Ryan McKenzie and Rob Brezhnehan from Pennsylvania?

14:05 - President Trump's polling numbers have been

14:07 - declining consistently. That is usually what happens

14:11 - with second-term presidents. His numbers are

14:14 - worse historically than most other second-term

14:18 - presidents at this time. Relationships with

14:21 - the president via polling are showing that the

14:26 - diehard Republicans are still with him, but independence are less so.

14:32 - This is more dependent, I think,

14:34 - on local races than it is specifically on the president.

14:38 - I mean, President Trump is not on the

14:41 - ballot, even though he's asking people to vote as if he is.

14:44 - So, for example, if we look at independence in the 10th district versus the

14:50 - 7th district, there are far more independence

14:54 - who are uncertain about who they're going to vote

14:57 - for in the 7th district, because the Republican

14:59 - candidate in that district, Ryan McKenzie, is new.

15:03 - Scott Perry, down in the 10th, I'm sorry,

15:06 - has been there for a long time. And so, people

15:08 - really know him and the independence have already

15:10 - made up their mind. And so, even among Republicans

15:15 - who are related to and closely tied to the

15:18 - president in ways, the local voters are still

15:21 - making up their mind based on how well they know

15:24 - those local candidates and what the relationship

15:28 - of them has been. So, in general, the Republican

15:31 - ticket is struggling, particularly among working-class white voters.

15:34 - There isn't very much excitement there, and there's a fair amount of displeasure.

15:38 - And those voters have been absolutely key to

15:40 - Republican victories in these districts in the past.

15:43 - Those voters aren't as engaged and aren't as

15:45 - happy with the Republican Party as they were in

15:47 - previous elections. So, that's a major concern

15:50 - for those candidates. But again, there's a little

15:52 - bit of wiggle room that's going to be based on

15:54 - how independent voters make up their mind.

15:57 - In the 7th, still someone undecided in the 10th,

16:00 - heavily in favor of Janelle Selsen. I think to hit on something you said there, Jordan,

16:04 - that top of the ticket is really important.

16:07 - And not only is Trump's numbers almost the worst,

16:10 - I think that they've ever been, but also since

16:12 - he's not on the ticket, those die-hard Trump's

16:14 - supporters that you're talking about, it's going

16:16 - to be tougher for Republicans to carry them

16:17 - along in this election. Whereas the actual person

16:20 - will be at the top of the ticket because how

16:22 - we organize our ballots, Josh Shapiro, he has

16:25 - very strong approval rating. And so, I think their

16:27 - Democrats are really optimistic that his support

16:29 - among voters in the state is going to be able to

16:31 - carry some of their ballot candidates, which

16:33 - is why you hear them talking about things like,

16:35 - you know, retaking the Senate or flipping some of these congressional seats.

16:39 - And I want to put his favorability a little bit

16:41 - of historical context. Pennsylvania loves to

16:43 - re-elect an incumbent governor. There hasn't been

16:47 - an incumbent governor that's lost in Pennsylvania, is that right?

16:51 - Yeah. Yeah. I'm new here.

16:52 - So I'm not entirely brushing my history, but I don't

16:54 - think, and the average margin of victory is

16:57 - somewhere between 12 and 15 points. So not only is

17:00 - Governor Shapiro has favorable polling numbers, but also he has history behind him.

17:06 - Pennsylvania enjoys a moderate candidate and enjoys an incumbent

17:10 - governor and Shapiro is benefiting from both

17:12 - of those things. So also, but I mean, we've been

17:16 - talking about how favorability for the Republican

17:20 - Party is on the downside. Republican Party is excited.

17:24 - Even so, none of these races are likely to

17:27 - be runaway races, you know, especially in the 10th.

17:32 - People are less stressed about their economic situation, still stress, but less

17:37 - stress about their economic situation in the 10th

17:39 - than there in the 7th, it leans a little more Republican.

17:42 - And so while the winds are blowing in a

17:44 - democratic way, that does not mean that there's

17:48 - now going to be a shoe-in or like a wave, right?

17:51 - Like these elections are still likely to be

17:53 - very close and far more likely to be extremely

17:56 - close than, you know, significant victories.

17:58 - I can think of one exception and this is going back

18:01 - maybe about 10 years or so, Tom Corbett was not

18:03 - re-elected in his bid for a second. That's right.

18:05 - I'm showing my age now. Thank you for the history. Corbett, if I can come back to you

18:10 - since we've been talking quite a bit about

18:11 - election policy and election issues, you wrote an

18:13 - article about comparing election policy between the two candidates for governor.

18:17 - What are the biggest differences that stand out between the two of them?

18:20 - Yeah, well, I think the biggest thing that stood out for me was when Josh Shapiro

18:24 - was running for his first term as governor

18:26 - back in 2022, he put a really heavy emphasis on

18:29 - election issues. It was the, he had released a

18:31 - series of, you know, policy plans as many

18:33 - candidates do when they're running and democracy,

18:36 - election voting issues is the very first thing

18:38 - that he had released. Whereas, Garrity, this time

18:41 - around, she's really trying to avoid talking

18:43 - about this issue, it seems. You know, she faced

18:46 - a lot of backlash and criticism over the past

18:48 - couple of years for the comments she made after the

18:50 - 2020 election, saying various things and applying

18:52 - that it wasn't fair or that Trump was the right

18:55 - for winner when we know, of course, the Trump law selection.

18:58 - And she hasn't really articulated

19:00 - a comprehensive policy for how she would approach elections as governor.

19:04 - Of course, governor can have tremendous influence pointing

19:06 - the secretary of state, you know, using the bully

19:08 - pulpit to get laws passed through the legislature,

19:10 - though, you know, we haven't had much luck with

19:12 - that past couple of years. But she hasn't really

19:15 - spoken to exactly how she would handle those issues.

19:17 - She wants to, of course, implement voter

19:19 - ID, stricter requirements there, but I'm not very

19:22 - clear on exactly, you know, what form of voter

19:24 - ID who needs to show it are their exceptions.

19:27 - Governor Shapiro, you know, he makes a lot of,

19:29 - of, of, hey, out of the fact that he's pushing

19:32 - back against these things that the Trump administration

19:35 - has done and, and that he, he supports things

19:37 - like, you know, registry, excuse me, registering

19:41 - you before they turn 18 to vote, but, you know,

19:44 - he points to the fact that it's been hard in

19:46 - his first term to get those things through the legislature since it's been split.

19:49 - Where does Stacey Garrity stand on the validity of the 2020 election?

19:53 - Yeah, she, that's hard to pin down, you know, right after the 2020 election,

19:58 - she was at a rally in, in the Capitol where

20:01 - she had made some comments alluding to the fact

20:04 - that it wasn't fair, but she says that that

20:06 - wasn't actually a reference to the presidential election.

20:09 - It was a reference to a Senate election and how they kind of ballots there.

20:12 - Then at a Trump rally in 2022, she said to Trump,

20:15 - we know you won, referring to the 2020 election,

20:18 - but in recent interviews on a campaign trail

20:20 - now and in her previous run for treasurer,

20:22 - she's backpedaled that. She recently sat on ABC

20:25 - 27 that, that she, you know, she alluded to,

20:29 - yeah, I know Trump didn't win, but then quickly

20:31 - pivoted to, well, I know I won my election.

20:33 - So she hasn't really, she hasn't directly

20:36 - said that the 2020 election was fair and that

20:38 - Joe Biden won it fairly. I'd like to come back to you from your article today,

20:43 - comparison contrasts the two candidates on their

20:45 - reviews on the economy. Can you talk a little

20:48 - bit about some of the differences that you highlighted?

20:51 - Yeah, sure. So one of the things I,

20:53 - I just could, I can connect this to the conversation

20:56 - you were all just having and when we were

20:58 - talking about the governor's race earlier, you

21:00 - know, one of the things that the Democrats are,

21:02 - are hammering a guarantee on is the fact that

21:05 - she came out in support of HR won the big

21:08 - beautiful bill, despite the fact that she was,

21:10 - as treasurer, she had no real role in that,

21:12 - but she has been, you know, very strong on that.

21:14 - So obviously with some of the cuts and so forth

21:16 - that are coming down the line, you know, they

21:19 - want to say that they want to kind of connect

21:21 - her to that, but as far as other issues, you know,

21:24 - one of the things that is interesting that they,

21:27 - they talk about that's different, surely say is they both want to cut taxes, right?

21:31 - This is what they say, a guarantee is called for a reduction

21:34 - of the overall personal income tax, which is now

21:37 - 3.07%. She hasn't really said exactly what it

21:41 - would be, but, but you know, but there would be,

21:44 - she's looking to cut a point off or something like that.

21:49 - Whereas Imperial has specifically said that he's not,

21:52 - that's, he's never, well, let's just say he's never

21:54 - called for that. He's never called for an across the board cut.

21:58 - He's, he's instead looking for tax rebates for working families and so forth.

22:02 - This is what he's actually done in his first term already,

22:04 - uh, provided that, you know, working families tax

22:07 - cuts and so forth. And that's where he stands.

22:09 - Now a lot of actually, you know, he's, he's

22:11 - actually done a lot of this of that tax policy that

22:14 - he's, you know, called for, but, but that seems

22:17 - to be where his, his greater interest lies.

22:20 - And then you could like look at energy, when it comes to like boosting the economy,

22:23 - they both talk about ways that they can build the

22:25 - infrastructure, help build the infrastructure that

22:27 - gets businesses, you know, to relocate here or to expand and so forth.

22:32 - Um, Gary seems to be very focused on natural gas,

22:35 - those kinds of energy, you know, expanding that

22:38 - sector, whereas, uh, Imperial is, you know, talks

22:41 - about deregulating how long it takes for small

22:45 - businesses to get licenses and so forth.

22:48 - And also for, um, you know, to expand the different types

22:52 - of energy production that we do here to not just

22:55 - be natural gas oil and so forth, but also to

22:58 - include things like solar. I want to talk about

23:00 - campaign finance reports for just a moment.

23:03 - Um, the latest reports note that Governor

23:05 - Shapiro's campaign raised over $13 million this

23:08 - summer compared to the Garrity campaign bring in $1.

23:11 - 8 million. This is over the June 3rd to September 14th time period. Um, Jordan, can

23:16 - it, can it be competitive if they can't keep up financially?

23:22 - Yes and no. Uh, the general consensus

23:25 - that a candidate needs to be within the same relative range.

23:29 - Uh, what that looks like depends on which race it is. Uh, the more ground you have

23:34 - to cover, like a state, it is more difficult to

23:37 - be competitive as a candidate if you don't have as much money.

23:40 - You just simply can't be ever at once, especially if you also have a day job.

23:45 - Something like a congressional district, you

23:48 - can make up a lot more ground having less money

23:51 - in a smaller, in a smaller space, even though

23:53 - congressional districts are, you know, multiple counties.

23:56 - Um, so, you know, it depends, it depends on what

23:59 - race you're running and how much money is involved.

24:02 - Uh, being that far down makes it incredibly difficult. And as Carter mentioned earlier,

24:07 - the main challenge is just people knowing who she

24:10 - is, especially people in her own party knowing who she is.

24:13 - It takes a lot of money to educate people

24:16 - about, you know, this is who this candidate is.

24:18 - And even more than money, uh, there needs to be

24:21 - opportunity for earned media. Uh, so she needs to

24:24 - be in the news more. Um, you know, President

24:26 - Trump has been a master of that and it's been key

24:29 - to his political success. Uh, he already has been

24:31 - trying to do that in touting a lot of her work

24:33 - that she's done as, uh, uh, treasurer, but it

24:37 - really hasn't broken through. Um, so without huge

24:41 - amounts of earned media, um, and without some ability

24:44 - to have some sort of grassroots campaign that's

24:47 - really active and widespread, it's going to be

24:50 - extremely difficult to make up, uh, you know,

24:53 - political ground without huge chunks of change.

24:57 - The Cook Political Report reported, uh, three

24:59 - of Pennsylvania's congressional races are being

25:01 - nationally targeted as toss ups this year, the

25:03 - seventh, the eighth, and the 10th, which we've

25:05 - all kind of talked briefly about what stands out

25:08 - about these particular regions, um, why, what makes them toss ups?

25:11 - Yeah, I'm really interested in the

25:12 - 10th congressional race. Obviously we have a rematch

25:14 - there between, uh, Scott Perry and former WGL

25:17 - anchor, Janelle Stenson, and she came pretty close in 2028.

25:20 - Um, so I think that's why the Democrats want

25:23 - to target that to flip. But I think what's really

25:26 - interesting about that district is the way, especially the northern part of it,

25:29 - up in the Cumberland County, has been changing

25:31 - demographically becoming bluer over the last

25:34 - couple of years. And I know a lot of Democrats

25:36 - in the state, uh, have been eyeing that trend

25:37 - for many years thinking, okay, is this an area we

25:40 - can target, uh, and they keep trying to make it happen.

25:42 - Um, so I'm wondering if this year is going to finally be the time that it does, uh,

25:47 - think the same F&M poll that we've been talking

25:49 - about from this morning had her one point up

25:51 - still within the margin of error, uh, but it seems like they might be able to do it.

25:54 - Jordan has anything changed in the, the last

25:56 - two years to make this, this rematch in the

25:59 - 10th, uh, any different than, than last time. The election was already a coin flip.

26:04 - It's a coin flip again, uh, Janelle Stenson lost by about 5,000 votes, 3%, uh, sorry,

26:14 - uh, 1.3%. Um, so, you know, these elections come

26:18 - down to tens of thousands of small decisions

26:22 - made by tens of thousands of voters, uh, or

26:25 - potential voters. And the victory in this election

26:28 - is who can convince more people to take the time

26:32 - out of their day to go vote or request a mail

26:35 - in ballot and, you know, don't let it sit on

26:37 - your coffee table for too long, actually do it

26:39 - and get it back. All of these really small

26:42 - decisions are the things that will, will accumulate

26:45 - into who wins this race. And that's what we

26:48 - mean when we talk about political excitement,

26:50 - how excited are people to add another chore to their lives and get it done?

26:54 - Uh, you know, um, and it's not just about Perry

26:58 - and Stelson, it's not just about, you know,

27:01 - Shapiro and Garrity. They need to be excited

27:03 - enough to think that just participating in the,

27:06 - in the act of democracy is, is worth their time.

27:09 - And that's a huge part of what the candidates

27:13 - are trying to do. They're trying to get people

27:14 - excited about themselves, about, about themselves,

27:16 - and they're trying to get people upset and

27:18 - disillusioned about, uh, people who would vote for the

27:21 - other candidate. Um, it's a whole psychological

27:24 - warfare game, but it really comes down to just

27:27 - tens and tens and tens of thousands of really

27:28 - micro decisions about what do people want to do

27:30 - with their lives and do they think it's valuable to get out and vote?

27:34 - Canada, who, who shows people that they're valuable to

27:37 - support is going to be the one that wins and it's

27:39 - going to be neck and neck. We only have about a

27:41 - minute or so left, but, um, Carmen, I want to give you

27:43 - a chance to talk briefly about the first congressional

27:45 - district in southeastern Pennsylvania and

27:47 - why that one always seems to be considered a toss up or a target as well.

27:52 - Yeah, and it's very different, uh, in the sense

27:55 - that Brian Fitzpatrick, one of the things that he's,

27:57 - um, you know, I know the cook report puts it as

28:00 - a likely are, um, although some recent polling

28:03 - suggests that it could be very tight and they, he

28:05 - is targeted by Democrats. But one of the things

28:07 - that he does different than the other candidates

28:09 - that we've talked about is he's really kept a

28:10 - distance from Donald Trump. So, you know, even

28:13 - though it's, you know, right down the middle,

28:15 - Democrats and Republicans, it's a very close district

28:18 - that big, you know, we'll see if that is what

28:20 - actually gets him over the finish line.

28:22 - Our guests have been Jordan Wilkie, democracy reporter

28:25 - with WITF in Harrisburg, Carmen Russell,

28:28 - Slichansky, multi-platform reporter with WHY News

28:32 - in Philadelphia, and Carter Walker, reporter with Vopie.

28:35 - Gentlemen, thank you all for joining us.

28:54 - I'm Francine Schertzer. Thank you for watching.