00:00 - The following program is sponsored in part by customers

00:03 - bank.

00:13 - We're joined today by Berwood Yost, director of the Floyd

00:15 - Institute for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College.

00:19 - We're about to look at some of the data for the most recently released poll.

00:22 - But before we get into specifics, when you're approaching a poll

00:25 - such as this, do you have any initial expectations?

00:29 - Well, there's a lot of polling data these days, as you know, Francine.

00:34 - So, you know, there are things we might expect to see.

00:39 - And we certainly, in developing the questionnaire, have some ideas about

00:44 - sort of the direction or what we hope we might, see in the data.

00:49 - So, I think, you know, coming into this, we and including our prior polls, we,

00:55 - we expected, a lot of the focus to be on

00:59 - how people are feeling about the economy and their circumstances,

01:03 - how people feel the president and his party of has affected their lives.

01:08 - Those are the things we wanted to explore because we had some sense that maybe,

01:13 - you know, there were some negative feelings about those things.

01:15 - I think we were a little surprised about the amount of hardship,

01:19 - and economic pessimism that people feel.

01:22 - We knew it was out there, but it's probably a bit more pronounced than we expected.

01:27 - But, you know, lots of interesting stuff.

01:30 - So let's take a look at the first question we'll look at.

01:32 - Is Pennsylvania headed in the right direction or on the wrong track?

01:36 - 41% said headed in the right direction.

01:39 - 45% said the wrong track.

01:41 - 15% don't know.

01:43 - Can you talk?

01:44 - You hinted at this already, but what factors do you think contributed

01:47 - toward particularly

01:48 - the majority that are looking, as if we were going down the wrong track?

01:53 - Yeah.

01:53 - Look, we have not been satisfied with the direction

01:56 - of the state of the nation really, since before the pandemic.

02:00 - And this continues a longstanding trend of general dissatisfaction.

02:06 - There are a number of indicators that we use and we track over time.

02:10 - This is one of them.

02:11 - And it gives us a sense of the mood of the electorate and,

02:15 - you know, while that, the right direction or wrong direction

02:19 - number has moved around a little bit here and there.

02:22 - It's been mostly, pessimistic and,

02:26 - we think, you know, it's probably going to continue to be that way for a bit.

02:31 - The next one that we will look

02:32 - at is the most important problems facing Pennsylvania.

02:35 - 21% cited this economy, 12%

02:39 - government and politicians, 11% taxes.

02:43 - And, a new item compared to some prior poll, 6% data centers

02:46 - and artificial intelligence.

02:48 - Has there been much of a shift in the issues

02:51 - that that Pennsylvanians cited as, as their main concerns?

02:55 - Yeah.

02:55 - Look, the economy is what's driving most people's concerns.

02:59 - It's been that way for a while.

03:01 - It was that way heading into the 2024 election.

03:04 - And it's that way, today and this is one of those things

03:08 - that gives, Democrats a real advantage.

03:12 - Citizens say they trust Democrats by about,

03:16 - 24 points for the Republicans to handle that issue.

03:19 - That's going to be the defining issue in this race.

03:22 - It's been that way for a few months, and it will continue to be that way,

03:25 - I expect, through Election Day.

03:28 - And I noticed that this is the first time that a data center

03:30 - has registered as a top, response as to this poll question.

03:35 - What should lawmakers take from this?

03:37 - Well, between this and the other questions that we asked about identity

03:42 - data centers,

03:43 - it's really clear that the public is not supportive of this technology,

03:47 - and they don't want them built in their local communities.

03:50 - I don't know if you want to talk about that later, but,

03:54 - something like 80% of, Pennsylvania voters

03:58 - tell us they do not want a data center build in their community.

04:02 - They would oppose that.

04:03 - And so, you know, we had a few people

04:07 - who randomly said that data centers were a problem in our June poll.

04:11 - It was so few that we didn't give it its own category.

04:14 - This is the first time, that we've heard that many people say data

04:18 - centers are a big issue, and I want to see something done about them.

04:23 - On a related topic, I want to look at two poll questions.

04:25 - Now, back to back.

04:26 - First of all, how often do you use AI artificial intelligence in daily life?

04:30 - 12% say every day.

04:32 - 18%. Most states, 23%.

04:35 - Once in a while.

04:36 - 22%. Rarely.

04:38 - 25%. Never.

04:40 - And then the next question

04:41 - we're going to look at is how do you feel about AI advancements?

04:44 - 37% said very nervous, 39% responded somewhat nervous.

04:49 - 14% somewhat excited.

04:52 - 5% very excited. And 6% don't know.

04:55 - Do you draw a correlation between how much a respondent is using

05:00 - artificial intelligence and their comfort level, or their sentiment about it?

05:04 - Right.

05:05 - Well, most people aren't using it that often, although the number of people

05:08 - who are using AI most days or every day has increased.

05:12 - We asked this question the first time last October,

05:16 - and it was less than 20% said they use AI most or every day.

05:21 - That's now up to 30%.

05:22 - So we've seen some movement there.

05:24 - But even as more people use it, they become more concerned about it.

05:29 - So, about 80% of voters in Pennsylvania tell us

05:35 - they're more nervous than excited about AI and recent advancements in AI.

05:40 - And that number has increased since the last time we asked that question.

05:44 - And so more use doesn't necessarily mean, less concern.

05:49 - And in fact, I think one of the real issues

05:52 - that comes out of this is how much demand

05:55 - there is for more regulation of artificial intelligence.

05:59 - Intelligence.

06:01 - 60% of voters.

06:05 - Strongly want the

06:08 - government, the federal government, to regulate AI more closely.

06:11 - And so, that's a lot of people who have very real concerns about AI.

06:17 - And I think part of the reasons for

06:19 - that shows up in another question that we asked, and that was, you know,

06:24 - we asked specifically about whether or not, you know,

06:26 - advancements in technology, have been better

06:31 - or worse, generally have been a good thing or a bad thing for society overall.

06:35 - And surprisingly,

06:38 - more people, I think, about two thirds said that it's been,

06:43 - more negative than positive for society, almost 2 to 1.

06:48 - So, there's there are real concerns about technology,

06:52 - and they manifest themselves

06:54 - and concern about AI and about data center development.

06:58 - Let's look at one more question on a related topic.

07:00 - Would you favor or oppose having a data center bill in your community?

07:04 - 4% favor.

07:06 - Strongly favor.

07:07 - Excuse me 9%. Somewhat favor 16%.

07:11 - Somewhat oppose, 63% strongly oppose, and 8% don't know.

07:16 - Do you think that concerns regarding data centers are going to manifest

07:20 - themselves in the midterm elections?

07:23 - Well, I think we have to ask ourselves,

07:25 - how does this tie back to the main issues that people have?

07:28 - And that's the economy.

07:30 - And I think one of the main concerns that people have about data center

07:34 - development is what it will do to their utility prices.

07:37 - Well, we asked questions in the survey about how difficult

07:41 - it was for people to pay for certain everyday needs.

07:45 - And, you know, being able to pay for utility prices

07:48 - was one of the most common, problems that people expressed.

07:53 - And so, you know, I think tying, AIS, and data center

07:59 - development to rising, utility prices is definitely related to that.

08:05 - Economic messages.

08:06 - Now, of course, people have many other concerns about data

08:09 - center development, but I think in this upcoming election,

08:13 - having them tied to what they might do to utility prices

08:18 - and the economic concerns that people have, I think that's how that

08:21 - how that plays out in this upcoming election cycle.

08:24 - Let's shift our focus now and look at some of the poll questions

08:26 - that are of perhaps more political nature.

08:28 - First of all, governor Josh Shapiro's job performance

08:31 - 20% rated as excellent, 27%

08:35 - good, 24% fair, 23% poor 6%.

08:41 - Don't know.

08:42 - Has there been much fluctuation in the governor's job performance

08:45 - since he's been in office?

08:47 - No. Not really.

08:48 - The governor, is performing pretty well, about equal numbers of people

08:53 - the way we ask the question things.

08:54 - He's doing an excellent a good job compared to fair job.

08:57 - And so overall, his ratings are positive.

09:00 - And if you look at where he stands in relation to other recent governors,

09:05 - his job approval ratings are where they need to be to win reelection.

09:09 - They're where I think they're above where Tom Wolf was

09:12 - at this point in his, his administration.

09:15 - They're above where Ed Rendell was.

09:17 - They're above where Tom Corbett was.

09:19 - So these prior administrations,

09:22 - some of whom won reelection, Wolf.

09:24 - And Rendell, his numbers look better than theirs.

09:28 - So, I think he's in good position.

09:31 - If he can maintain that, that job approval ratings.

09:35 - And they really haven't changed much either over time,

09:38 - being that this is an election year, both a governor and his opponent

09:41 - are campaigning, does that have much influence over

09:43 - how how respondents view the governor's job performance?

09:47 - Well, I mean, traditionally we see, you know, during the administration,

09:52 - a governor's job performance will start to move up as they approach reelection.

09:57 - And actually, even in a governor like Corbett, who was not reelected

10:02 - still, during the reelection campaign, his approval ratings did rise a bit.

10:06 - And that's because governors, when they run for reelection,

10:09 - try to tell people about all the good things they've done.

10:12 - And so they're much more visible.

10:13 - And so, you know, I would expect there to be some changes

10:17 - and perhaps even some increases in his approval ratings.

10:19 - Given the current electoral environment.

10:22 - But we'll have to see.

10:23 - I mean, part of that depends on what his opponent has to say about him

10:27 - and how those messages kind of resonate with voters.

10:30 - We haven't seen anything at this point that has changed how voters

10:34 - feel, but that's always a possibility.

10:37 - During an election campaign.

10:39 - Now let's look at

10:39 - the, approval rating for Donald Trump's performance.

10:43 - 13% rated him as excellent, 14% as good, 14% is fair,

10:50 - 59% poor, and 1% don't know.

10:54 - Has there been much fluctuation in the president's job performance

10:58 - since he was reelected?

10:59 - Yeah.

10:59 - Look, unlike, Governor Shapiro, whose numbers have,

11:03 - you know, they kind of rose early in his,

11:06 - administration of his and have stayed pretty steady and pretty high.

11:10 - Governor.

11:11 - President Trump's job approval ratings in the state have really taken a beating.

11:16 - They're much lower than they were even in March, or last October.

11:21 - And really, you can attribute this, just for example, before I go deeper,

11:28 - I mean, in, I think it was in March, right before the launch of the Around War,

11:33 - his overall approval rating was about 40% favorable.

11:37 - As you said, it's down to 27%.

11:39 - And so his general job approval ratings have declined significantly.

11:44 - And I think, more importantly, his, approval ratings

11:48 - for specific issues have also declined markedly.

11:53 - So when we think about things like, handling immigration,

11:57 - his numbers have gone from 47%,

12:01 - positive last October to about 38% now.

12:06 - That's where he does best.

12:07 - When we talk about foreign policy, his numbers have gone from 42% positive,

12:13 - last October to 26% positive today.

12:16 - And he's taken the biggest hit for handling inflation.

12:20 - Those numbers have gone from 31%

12:22 - favorable or positive to 15% today.

12:25 - And so all of those, you know, not just his general approval ratings,

12:30 - have started to slip, but his ratings on specific things, including the thing

12:35 - that voters care most about the economy, they've really declined.

12:39 - And, that's going to have an effect, I think, on all these elections

12:43 - that are going on this year.

12:45 - And perhaps the most important number, has to do with how people feel

12:50 - his policies have affected them personally.

12:52 - Only about 1 in 3 voters say that the president's

12:56 - policies have helped them personally.

13:01 - And if you look at that,

13:03 - among independent voters, even fewer of them say that's the case.

13:07 - Only 1 in 4.

13:08 - And so the president and his policies at the moment are pretty unpopular.

13:14 - And he's going to have to do something to turn those around,

13:18 - or it's going to be a really tough year.

13:19 - I think, for Republicans running for office.

13:23 - I want to look at, the specific poll that you just referenced, regarding,

13:27 - have the Trump administration's policies helped or hurt you?

13:30 - 12% helped a lot.

13:32 - 21% helped somewhat.

13:34 - 27% hurt somewhat, 34% hurt a lot, and 6% don't know.

13:40 - Can you give us a little bit more insight, into, what specific policies?

13:45 - I know you talked a little bit about immigration, inflation, so forth.

13:48 - If you can give

13:49 - maybe a little bit more insight into, where these reflections come from.

13:54 - Yeah.

13:54 - Well, I think it probably has to do with some of the questions

13:58 - we asked about, hardships that I mentioned earlier.

14:02 - You know, we asked the voters if how difficult, it is

14:08 - for you and your family to afford certain things once

14:11 - the utility costs 57% said that was difficult.

14:15 - 55% said,

14:18 - paying for entertainment and recreation is difficult.

14:23 - The same

14:23 - number, 55% said paying for food and groceries is difficult.

14:27 - So when you go down the list of everyday expenses that people have,

14:33 - they're finding hard to pay for those things.

14:36 - And I think that's the kind of policy, and

14:39 - I think they hold the president accountable for some of those things.

14:43 - And that's why his ratings on handling inflation, in part, are so low.

14:48 - Let's look ahead to the midterm elections.

14:50 - The next question focuses on the 2026 Pennsylvania governor's race.

14:54 - Josh Shapiro is seen that coming in at 50%.

14:58 - Respondents gave it 25% to his Republican challenger,

15:02 - Stacey Garrity, 2% to Green Party candidate Tony Astra,

15:07 - 5% to some other candidate, and 18% currently don't know.

15:12 - We should note that since this poll was conducted, Tony Astra's,

15:15 - signatures have been challenged, so he's likely off of the ballot.

15:19 - Yeah, but that being said, did anything surprise you in these responses?

15:23 - No. Just like the governor's approval rating hasn't changed much

15:26 - in recent months.

15:27 - This race has stayed pretty flat, over the last few months.

15:32 - And, you know, maybe once we turn to the fall

15:37 - and, people start thinking more about the election,

15:40 - and Stacey Garrity also starts advertising more.

15:44 - I expect we're going to see more advertising.

15:46 - Those sorts of things will probably change the race.

15:50 - But for now, it's stayed, you know, pretty consistent over time.

15:54 - We've seen Governor Shapiro with about a 20 point lead.

15:58 - And, you know, that's where things stand.

16:01 - As I said, I think that will change.

16:03 - Voters will start to pay attention.

16:06 - For instance, a lot of Republicans tell us they don't know

16:10 - who they're going to vote for.

16:11 - I think it was about 20% in this poll.

16:13 - I believe most of them will end up voting for Stacey Garrity.

16:16 - So those numbers will narrow.

16:18 - But there's still a sizable number of undecided voters overall.

16:21 - They'll start to pay attention.

16:23 - They'll start to make up their mind.

16:24 - And I will expect perhaps in our next poll, we'll start to see some changes

16:29 - in this race.

16:30 - As you noted, 18% are, undecided at this time.

16:34 - And you expect that to narrow if you're running, perhaps the Shapiro or

16:37 - the Garrity campaign, how do you zero in on who those undecided voters are?

16:42 - Well, they have their own polling data.

16:44 - They'll be able to target those those kinds of folks.

16:47 - But, you know, there are,

16:50 - I mean, I think there are two things that you have to do.

16:52 - You have to first figure out who's going to vote.

16:54 - And one of the things that's clear from this polling is that at the moment,

16:58 - Democrats are more excited to vote, more interested in voting than Republicans are.

17:03 - And I think, you know, you you have to appeal to your base voters.

17:08 - You have to make sure they come out

17:09 - to vote before you start worrying about the undecided voters.

17:12 - So, you know, I think there's a lot of work that both campaigns

17:16 - have to do to start helping people make a decision

17:19 - and to make sure that their voters are coming out to vote.

17:22 - And I think that's especially true for Republicans in this environment.

17:26 - Stacey Garrity has a lot of work to do

17:28 - to try and get them enthusiastic about this race.

17:31 - Get them paying attention and get them out to vote.

17:34 - The last question we'll look at today, zeroes in on the 2026 congressional races,

17:40 - 36%, respond that they will vote for a Republican candidate,

17:45 - 48% for the Democratic candidate, 2%

17:48 - for some other candidate, and 14% currently don't know.

17:52 - Do you think that respondents views on Donald Trump

17:55 - from some of the prior questions, is having kind of a coattail effect?

17:59 - As you consider the the races for Congress?

18:02 - Absolutely.

18:03 - And in fact, we see this every election cycle, every midterm cycle.

18:08 - There's a strong relationship between how people feel about the president,

18:12 - the president's party, and how they're going to vote in the midterms.

18:16 - And and in this day and age, a lot of that has to do with voter enthusiasm.

18:21 - And also where kind of independent voters are going.

18:25 - And so, you know, we always see this movement, the the,

18:28 - the party in power always has a tougher time in midterm

18:32 - elections, winning those elections at the congressional level.

18:37 - And I think that's true this year.

18:38 - What it's a little different is historically,

18:41 - you have to go back to 2006 and the Bush administration

18:45 - to have an incumbent who was this unpopular.

18:49 - In fact, in 2018, President Trump's travel job approval rating

18:54 - was probably about ten points higher here in Pennsylvania than it is now.

18:59 - And so if you remember, 2018 was a pretty good year for Democrats.

19:04 - His numbers are even worse than that.

19:07 - And so as we talked about earlier,

19:09 - he's going to have to do something to turn that around with voters.

19:12 - And this could be a really difficult year for Republican candidates.

19:16 - From your perspective, what value does polling have?

19:19 - And monitoring Pennsylvania's politics and policy?

19:22 - Well, you know, it tells us

19:23 - what voters are thinking and what's important to them in a democracy.

19:27 - We expect elected officials to hear what the public has to say.

19:32 - And there's a lot of ways to do that.

19:33 - I think a good poll, is a useful tool for making sure that officeholders

19:39 - understand what the voters are thinking and what matters to them

19:43 - where it goes. Thank you for joining us.

19:45 - Sure. My pleasure. Thanks for having me.