00:00 - From the band family studios in the department of

00:04 - meteorology and atmospheric science at penn state

00:07 - this

00:08 - is whether world.

00:22 - Thing is Tuesday August fourth

00:24 - I'm your host you I pose are joined alongside forecaster Rob leydig

00:27 - arabs day we've been experiencing some pretty beautiful conditions across the

00:31 - commonwealth yeah kind of a tough day to be inside how did we get this job today Eli

00:35 - no actually it's a beautiful day out there

00:37 - hopefully you get the chance to enjoy this evening while you can because some big

00:40 - changes are just around the corner

00:42 - yeah we'll take a look at that in just a minute

00:44 - also coming up on tonight's show Ben rapper will have water watch

00:48 - where we'll take a look at how we're doing in the rain gauges as well as the it's

00:51 - invitation forecast for the next ten days

00:53 - but first here's Rob and thanks very much Eli boy has got a nice crown of sunflowers

00:58 - around me some of the sunflowers blooming and

01:01 - enjoying days like today across the commonwealth

01:03 - we started off on a cool note in some spots

01:05 - Ben mentioned last night in his forecast that

01:08 - we'll see places in the northwest plateau drop down into the forty

01:11 - and that was certainly the case in Bradford this morning

01:13 - meanwhile most of the locations in the central mountain starting off the day in the

01:17 - mid and upper fifties I'm all natural ac

01:20 - not a hard day to take in as we saw those

01:22 - temperatures rebound nicely once the fog burned off

01:25 - early this morning you can see that fog on the time lapse from rpms camera

01:29 - at the penn state Dubois campus quickly burning off

01:32 - those mornings do the moonset there and then some

01:34 - afternoon fair weather cumulus as we went through the day and temperatures that were

01:38 - seasonable for what you'd expect to see

01:40 - at this time of early August.

01:42 - Here's a look at the satellite and radar picture nothing to talk about on the radar

01:46 - just a fair weather cumulus building across the

01:48 - southern Pennsylvania will see more higher clouds

01:51 - begin to stir Freeman as we go through this evening

01:53 - and eventually an increase in cloud cover from

01:55 - south to north tonight and that will be a harbinger

01:57 - of some things to come eventually some precipitation

02:00 - is on the way going into tomorrow

02:02 - temperatures though as I mentioned seasonable

02:04 - for this time of early August upper seventies and

02:07 - places like johns town and Bradford meanwhile

02:10 - a low to mid eighties off towards the south south and east reading this afternoon at

02:13 - eighty five degrees a beautiful day especially when you factor in the humidity

02:17 - dew points only in the low fifties to low sixties very comfortable arab

02:21 - or was he some changes on the way and humidity will be on the increase

02:24 - as we go through tonight and more noticeably humid

02:27 - going into tomorrow afternoon.

02:29 - As we widen out the view the storm system that Ben told you while producing some

02:32 - showers and storms across the mid Atlantic and the carol in as still seeing some

02:36 - an upper level disturbance really producing some

02:38 - counterclockwise rotation over the deep south bringing some

02:41 - rain showers there were in this slice of nice but

02:43 - high pressure in control and our next storm system

02:46 - as remaining off towards the corn belt that will

02:49 - actually stall out this storm system begins to nudge

02:51 - north earthworm

02:52 - as high pressure will exit off to the northeast

02:54 - and I think we'll be in a rinse and repeat pattern

02:57 - for several days here were some places will stay

02:59 - mainly dry other areas may see some good downpours

03:02 - that could cause some localized flooding

03:04 - as we go through the second half of this week.

03:07 - Here's a look at the national perspective we see this boundary that will be

03:10 - stalling out and producing some heavy rain

03:12 - cross the mid west as we go through this week

03:14 - as well temperature contrast is a really evident here

03:17 - on the temperature map or upper sixties and Omaha

03:20 - meanwhile near triple digits in Wichita Kansas also seeing triple digits

03:24 - in the southern plains today

03:26 - wanted to point out Denver some big changes there were places

03:30 - near Denver they were actually close to one hundred decay freeze yesterday

03:33 - started off the day today down in the lower fifties a contrast of nearly fifty

03:37 - degrees and just about twelve hours or so

03:40 - of places people on social media saying that Denver is Denver ring

03:44 - not uncommon this time of year by the way when you see a boundary kind of slip

03:47 - through and the influence of the rockies but

03:49 - even this afternoon a temperature drop of about thirty degrees

03:52 - in twenty four hours.

03:54 - Here's a look at our surface map high pressure continues

03:56 - to move off to the north and east as we go through tonight

03:58 - we'll see the arrivals from rain chances I think especially se as we go towards

04:03 - daybreak tomorrow this boundary will be stalling out and I think we'll see

04:07 - of rinse and repeat situations with showers and storm chances tomorrow afternoon and

04:11 - evening tapering off over tonight

04:13 - and environment again as we go into

04:15 - Thursday afternoon and evening as well and then we'll

04:17 - talk more about those chances continuing into the weekend

04:20 - in water watching just a minute.

04:22 - So far tonight changes are on the way not as cool as it was last night

04:26 - mid fifties to near seventy should do it with clouds on the increase from south to

04:29 - north and humidity also on the increase

04:32 - there's that chance some isolated showers by daybreak in

04:34 - southeast Pennsylvania most of us staying dry overnight

04:37 - with some patchy fog as we begin the day on Wednesday

04:40 - temperatures near seasonable again upper seventies to mid eighties

04:44 - but we will see some scattered rainstorms really

04:46 - at any time in the day in eastern Pennsylvania

04:48 - popping up primarily during the afternoon in the west with

04:51 - some downpours possible then things quiet down overnight

04:54 - and re fire again as we go into Thursday especially during the afternoon

04:57 - or once again some downpours will be possible temperatures in the upper seventies to

05:01 - near ninety off to the south and east

05:03 - likely seeing more clouds than sun and muggy conditions for all

05:07 - water watches up.

05:08 - Three.

05:33 - If

05:40 - It's time for water watch this is our precipitation focus

05:43 - segment where we take a look at where it's been raining

05:46 - where it has not been raining

05:48 - and where it could be raining again over the course of the next ten days

05:51 - let's start by taking a look at how we've been opening up the month of August I

05:55 - showed you this map last night but

05:57 - this is basically looking at

05:58 - what's fallen in these first

06:00 - three complete days of the month you get into the blues that's generally about an

06:04 - inch of rain purples and reds denote multiple inches of rain

06:07 - most folks have opened up August

06:09 - with at least an inch of precipitation with a few exceptions very tippy Google have

06:14 - summertime convection where you have some of the

06:16 - have nots.

06:18 - Some of that has occurred in the lower susquehanna valley parts of the poconos

06:22 - and then across the northwest plateau but most folks have opened up this new month

06:26 - with quite a bit of rain already.

06:28 - Now if we look at how precipitation has compared to average

06:32 - in the last two weeks that since the last time we did this segment

06:35 - most folks are on the wet side the Greens and the blues

06:38 - with just a few exceptions that have been below average

06:41 - over the last two weeks the

06:43 - most

06:44 - frequent spectators

06:46 - have actually been in western Lancaster county

06:48 - and parts of dauphin county but aside from that many

06:51 - locations have been around if not well above average

06:54 - in the precipitation department over the past two weeks

06:57 - we can also wrap up the month of July we were keeping you updated on how July was

07:01 - doing and now we can put a bow on that.

07:03 - Again again the same general pattern most spots on the wet side and notably so

07:08 - with just a few exceptions

07:10 - more than seven inches of rain fell in Philadelphia

07:12 - during the month the twenty first way is July there

07:15 - more than seven inches also fell in Bradford

07:17 - but that was enough to be their second wettest

07:20 - July on record

07:21 - more than six inches of rain in state college altoona

07:24 - and do boys good enough for a top ten wet July there

07:27 - and those dry spots included allentown the thirty ninth driest July

07:31 - williamsport the forty fourth driest July

07:34 - and erie the seventy seventh driest July of course williamsport saw more rain on Sunday

07:40 - then they saw in the entire month of July so this there is already

07:43 - basically old news

07:45 - by the way the lowest report of rain I could find for the entire month was about two

07:49 - and a half inches and that was in Lebanon county

07:51 - so all things considered

07:53 - no one got truth the skunked during the month

07:56 - and generally speaking wetness tended to win out.

08:00 - If we look at that this is the percent of average precipitation over the past thirty

08:03 - days Greens and blues tend to dominate the map

08:06 - in Pennsylvania with a few of those dry exceptions

08:09 - so

08:10 - The thunderstorms have generally been active around here

08:14 - over the last a month or so and we should consider ourselves lucky because

08:18 - we've been a spot of relative wetness here from

08:20 - the mid Atlantic up into southern new England

08:23 - a lot of the rest of the lower forty eight has been dominated

08:26 - by dryness particularly where we grow things the corn belt a lot of the plains states

08:31 - have been turning dry that's been leading to some yield losses already being noticed

08:35 - throughout the planes

08:37 - other than our wetness around here the fingerprint of the Texas hill country flood

08:41 - from back in July shows up right there all those bright blues

08:44 - and also the monsoonal thunderstorms in the mountains

08:47 - of the west show up there in the Greens and blues

08:49 - outside of those locations

08:51 - dryness has tended to win out

08:53 - over the last thirty days that's also allowed drought to expand a bit in pockets

08:57 - through the plain states and into the corn belt

09:00 - where we've been adding color to this map

09:02 - around here we have been gradually trimming our drought back

09:06 - from northwest to southeast and I think there will be even more improvement in this

09:10 - when the new drought monitor comes out

09:12 - in two days because we had beneficial rain at the end last week

09:16 - and and then of course everything that happened

09:18 - Sunday into yesterday so I do expect improvement in this yet again.

09:22 - Once we get to this week's update

09:24 - I did want to take a moment to remind everyone the difference between a flood watch

09:28 - and a flood warning because we've gotten some comments about

09:31 - this flood watch was issued but I didn't see a flood and

09:34 - a flood watches issue issued when the ingredients are coming together

09:38 - and that flooding is possible that's what it's always meant so not everyone that gets

09:42 - a flood watch is going to see flooding a flood warning is issued when flooding is

09:48 - happening or is about to happen so if you end up under a flood watch and you don't

09:52 - see flooding the event was not a bust

09:55 - it just me ones that you got lucky

09:57 - remember that I point that out because the setup coming later this week

10:00 - we could see some more flood watches get issued

10:03 - because the ingredients are coming together

10:05 - to make flooding possible

10:07 - but not everyone is going to see flooding so remember that

10:10 - on this map this is the upper air pattern the colors denote perceptible water

10:14 - all these purple can

10:16 - the really deep tropical moisture

10:18 - is to the south right now but it comes back in a hurry

10:21 - into tomorrow well tomorrow's coverage of

10:23 - storms I don't think is going to be overly great

10:26 - any storm that forms has a lot of moisture to tap into and can promote local

10:31 - downpours and localized instances of flooding.

10:35 - By Thursday and Friday we we still have all this deep moisture in place

10:38 - but then an upper air disturbance will also begin to approach so I think the coverage

10:42 - of storms Thursday and Friday of this week

10:44 - will be on the increase any storm can put down a lot of rain but

10:48 - as is typical with the summer

10:50 - there will also be some gaps in the action tough to

10:53 - pinpoint where and

10:54 - in fact impossible to pinpoint where at this point but there will be some areas

10:58 - that are spectators again

11:00 - Friday again same deal plenty of moisture

11:02 - think the coverage of storms is pretty decent

11:04 - over the weekend less moisture and we get into a slightly drier flow so I think the

11:08 - coverage of storms will go down in fact most of the weekend will be

11:12 - dry that's looking pretty good at this point

11:14 - early next week another ripple of low pressure with

11:17 - a cold front will ride in more moisture returns so

11:20 - another chance of showers storms and downpours to start next week

11:24 - indications are that at the end of next week we get into a dryer

11:28 - northwesterly flow again and the

11:30 - storm activity

11:31 - should really decrease again at that point so I'm

11:33 - calling it typical summertime storms and spectating

11:38 - so more of the haves and the have nots

11:40 - tomorrow through Friday scattered thunderstorms and downpours I think the coverage is

11:44 - higher Thursday and Friday then it will be tomorrow

11:47 - some spots will be missed while others

11:49 - locally can get more than inch of precipitation

11:52 - once again Saturday and Sunday I think it's generally dry there could be a few

11:56 - isolated thunderstorms lingering Saturday but

11:59 - largely I think it is a dry fanfare free weekend in the precipitation department

12:04 - early next week low pressure and a front come through yet again I think there will be

12:08 - more showers and thunderstorms centered on Monday Tuesday

12:11 - before we look to dry things out and potentially turn less humid again

12:15 - to end next week

12:16 - that's water watch for this time around

12:18 - we'll be right back.

12:20 - It.

12:30 - Also will be a comfortable evening to enjoy a

12:32 - campfire or maybe you've got to do some yard work

12:35 - tend to that now because we're about to turn

12:37 - unsettled going into the second half of the week

12:39 - it won't be quite as cozy it was last night temperature is generally in the mid fifties

12:43 - to near seventy clouds on the increase from

12:45 - south to north and humidity also on the increase late

12:49 - a few showers may be possible closer to daybreak in southeast Pennsylvania but

12:52 - everybody's seeing the chance for some

12:54 - patchy valley fog as we begin the day on Wednesday

12:57 - should see those temperatures in the upper seventies to mid eighties

13:00 - generally seeing more clouds than sun but I think we'll see more sun

13:03 - especially north of I eighty some scattered

13:05 - rainstorms at any point in the day in the east

13:08 - more towards the afternoon and evening in the west some

13:10 - locally heavy rain possible before those showers and storms

13:13 - taper off overnight and fire again going into Thursday it's a

13:17 - rinse and repeat kind of pattern best chance for any

13:19 - downpours will be

13:21 - during the afternoon and evening it'll be muggy

13:23 - for all temperatures mainly in the upper seventies

13:25 - to near ninety let's get back to Eli.

13:27 - Thank you for your forecast Rob be sure to join us tomorrow for weather-wise with

13:31 - John nice where he'll talk about the dog days of summer

13:34 - and will also have an update on the extended

13:36 - forecast from all of us here at where the world

13:38 - have agreed.