00:00 - From the band family studios in the department of

00:04 - meteorology and atmospheric science at penn state

00:07 - this is whether world.

00:21 - Overwatch add welcome for the world today is Tuesday July seventh twenty twenty six

00:25 - are Rob lilac and I'm pleased to introduce a brand new host you on the show tonight

00:29 - Eli poster is a third years student in the penn state

00:31 - department of meteorology and atmospheric science

00:33 - Eli has been helping us behind the scenes with directing and making graphics this

00:36 - summer walk under the show as a host Eli

00:39 - yeah thank you so much Rob I'm originally from Cleveland Ohio are being from a place

00:43 - where the weather changes so often it really

00:45 - made me interested in studying meteorology

00:47 - in college so I'm really thankful to be here

00:50 - yeah well hey

00:51 - have you on the show in this capacity today we're talking about of course a mixed bag

00:54 - of weather or more rain chances on the way from Pennsylvania

00:57 - yeah we'll take a look at that in just a minute

00:59 - also coming up tonight on this show we will have water watch where we'll take a look

01:03 - at how we're doing in our precipitation gauges

01:05 - and the precipitation forecasts for the next

01:07 - ten days but first here's Rob with the forecast

01:11 - and thanks very much Eli and welcome aboard in this

01:13 - capacity is we take a look at our commonwealth cameras

01:16 - out there today really dependent on where you were or what type of day it was if you

01:20 - were off in western Pennsylvania you saw some

01:22 - nice breaks of blue sky heading into the afternoon

01:24 - and a warmer day there as well

01:26 - meanwhile in central and eastern Pennsylvania kind of socked in with clouds after we

01:30 - began the day on a very foggy note

01:32 - I think once again we'll see some areas of dense fog

01:35 - as we begin the day on Wednesday.

01:37 - Take a look at our do points across the commonwealth this afternoon a bit more

01:40 - comfortable off to the east where we've had an easterly component to the flow

01:44 - do points there in the mid sixties today

01:46 - meanwhile still on the soupy air mass in central

01:49 - and western Pennsylvania this afternoon where there's two points have been in the

01:52 - upper sixties and even lower seventies

01:54 - across the afternoon.

01:56 - On the temperature perspective with that usually

01:58 - components of the flow they've been held back in a big way

02:01 - sixty seven on July seventh the top mount pocono

02:04 - easy to take though considering the triple digits that we had

02:07 - of this time last week and some places off to the south and east and lower eighties

02:11 - today where we had some sunshine and some down sloping

02:14 - in the west

02:15 - satellite radar picture shows some

02:16 - breaks in the clouds as we went through the afternoon in western areas but also some

02:20 - spotty showers we had some good downpours

02:23 - that John will talk about in water watch and recap some of the recent rain totals

02:27 - in just a bit

02:28 - but I think once again we've got the chance for some locally heavy rain especially in

02:31 - the Laurel highlands as we go through this evening.

02:33 - For that reason

02:35 - a flood watch has been hoisted for all the counties shaded hearing green including

02:38 - Indiana west more land and somerset counties that

02:41 - goes until at least midnight tonight because of the

02:43 - recently saturated soils and also the potential for some

02:46 - locally heavy rain when any of those storms just kind of

02:48 - sit and dump rain for a couple of hours overhead.

02:52 - As we take a look off to the east

02:54 - see an area of low pressure actually some

02:55 - tightening circulation off the mid Atlantic coastline

02:58 - this is slowly making some progress eastward

03:00 - it has been talked about last night lot a lot of motion with this boundary

03:04 - kind of situated tour south has been kind of

03:06 - the catalyst for along from these daily chances

03:09 - for showers and storms and once again I think we'll see that chance

03:11 - primarily in southern pa tomorrow should be a drier day a though

03:14 - for most of us.

03:16 - Across the mid west quiet conditions in the corn

03:18 - belt watching some showers and storms across

03:21 - north Dakota as we go into the afternoon but all in all seeing a surge of heat

03:24 - across the plains nothing like the triple digits we had here

03:28 - last week but still some nineties one o eight

03:30 - in Phoenix not uncommon for this time of year.

03:33 - Chill though with that noise

03:34 - easterly component to the flow

03:36 - in new England where temperatures only made it into the mid sixties in Boston

03:40 - in early July certainly a cool and cloudy day there

03:43 - this area of low pressure slowly sneaks it's way eastward but we're still watching

03:47 - this boundary kind of stalled out to our south that will keep things

03:50 - somewhat unsettled as we go into the day tomorrow.

03:53 - I think we'll see more sunshine especially in northern Pennsylvania

03:56 - but once again can't rule out the chance for a shower or even a quick downpour

04:00 - in the Laurel highlands as we go into tomorrow afternoon

04:03 - and then by the time we get to Thursday I think we'll see more of a widespread chance

04:06 - for some afternoon showers and storms and once again some locally heavy rain

04:10 - and as John will tell you about and water watch more chances on the way

04:14 - going into the the second half of this week late this week and then also into

04:17 - the upcoming weekend.

04:19 - So for tonight we'll call it mainly misty

04:22 - temperatures either side of average for this time of

04:24 - July so we're looking at sixties for overnight lows

04:27 - some scattered thunder showers and downpours especially

04:29 - in the Laurel highlands in south central Pennsylvania

04:32 - tapering off after midnight

04:34 - I think we will see widespread areas of drizzle and some

04:36 - dense fog will keep that in mind for your morning commute

04:39 - as we begin the day on Wednesday the fog will burn off and I think we'll see

04:43 - partly cloudy skies mainly across the northern tier where it should be more

04:46 - comfortable as we go through the day.

04:48 - Somewhat sticky and the last with dew points there

04:50 - are likely in the sixties and I think we'll see

04:52 - the chance for some spotty showers once again in

04:55 - the Laurel highlands areas off to the south of the turnpike

04:58 - or clause will hang tough I think there

05:00 - for most of the day once again some patchy fog will

05:02 - develop as we go into Wednesday night and then on Thursday

05:05 - a more widespread chance for some showers and storms

05:08 - more scattered in the west becoming more organized and locally heavy I think in the

05:12 - east has begun to the afternoon and evening

05:14 - warmer for all temperatures dropping off in the eighties

05:16 - will be soupy at times as well do points maybe in the seventies especially se

05:21 - we've got water watch coming up next

05:24 - and and.

05:49 - If.

05:57 - Water watch is our precipitation focused segment here on weather world

06:01 - we do this every few weeks during the warm season

06:04 - we will start by reviewing

06:06 - what's been in the rain gauges

06:08 - recently and

06:09 - going back to the beginning of the year

06:11 - and then give you our outlook for the next ten days when our precipitation chances

06:17 - the highest

06:18 - I think the key message here is that the weather will remain active.

06:22 - Right into the beginning of the weekend you've already heard about the period through

06:25 - Thursday from Rob and then I think there's

06:27 - there's a pretty good chance that there's a substantial actual stretch

06:30 - of

06:31 - Dry weather

06:32 - headed our way to allow everybody to kind of dry out

06:35 - what's happened the last few days though this is the

06:37 - twenty four hour period ending at eight am this morning

06:40 - and there were some boomers in the western part

06:42 - of the state some golly washers few places.

06:46 - More than an inch of rain drip wrote relatively dry in the east though

06:49 - in that twenty four hour period

06:51 - the twenty four hour period before that ending at eight am Monday

06:55 - much of the commonwealth shared

06:57 - in a

06:58 - fairly heavy rain a couple or.

07:00 - Values above two inches here and

07:02 - the twenty four hour period ending Sunday

07:05 - at eight am

07:06 - also featured

07:07 - rain in most areas of the state but you get this the

07:09 - sense that it's often here there and everywhere so

07:13 - that's typical summertime precipitation

07:15 - as far as deficits and surpluses let's go back to

07:18 - the beginning of meteorological summer June first

07:21 - and generally speaking

07:24 - most of the major observing stations are above

07:26 - average in precipitation going back to June first

07:29 - but if few noticeable

07:31 - deficits especially williamsport Harrisburg

07:34 - and allentown again

07:36 - the nature of summer time convective precipitation can show patterns like this

07:41 - by the way a lot of these positive numbers

07:43 - would have been negative a week ago but

07:46 - recent rains have pushed.

07:49 - Since the beginning of meteorological summer

07:51 - a number of these places above average

07:54 - what about for the year to date while the general pattern

07:57 - for the first

07:58 - six plus months of the year has featured

08:00 - drier than average conditions southeast of the mountains

08:03 - and if you want to find wetter than average conditions you need to go

08:07 - in the western and northern

08:09 - places so it's kind of been a tale of

08:11 - of two precipitation.

08:14 - Regimes nationally the big story.

08:17 - The relatively dry

08:18 - winter

08:19 - shows out west with these

08:21 - deficits

08:23 - with

08:23 - the burgeoning El nino that tends to favor a

08:27 - more active southern storm track in the fall and winter so my guess is

08:31 - we're going to start seeing some surplus show up

08:34 - as we head into the fall and winter

08:37 - along the southern states

08:38 - drought monitor certainly mirrors

08:41 - that sort of year to date pattern with

08:43 - still some drought concerns southeast of the mountains.

08:47 - The ones you get.

08:49 - In the central and western and northern Pennsylvania

08:52 - not much of a drought concern this hasn't changed much

08:55 - in the last.

08:57 - Couple months

08:58 - and I don't think what will happen in the next ten days will

09:01 - have much of an impact on the current drought

09:04 - situation nationally once again it generally mirrors

09:07 - what has happened

09:08 - year to date

09:09 - already well into fire season

09:12 - in the.

09:14 - Intermountain west and there are

09:16 - no signs that that will improve anytime soon

09:19 - what about the weather here over the next ten

09:21 - days well we'll look at the upper air pattern

09:23 - these are pressure lines up around twenty thousand feet the dips

09:27 - are

09:28 - often associated with storm Venus

09:30 - and when we

09:31 - run this through to Friday

09:33 - you'll see one more sort of dip or trough in the flow

09:37 - that will support a weather system going through here Friday and Saturday

09:41 - so we're going to keep

09:42 - the risk of precipitation.

09:45 - Relatively high

09:46 - right through the first half of the weekend but watch how the pattern evolve wolves

09:50 - as we get later into the weekend

09:52 - this is the pattern that will dominate the beginning in the middle of next week

09:57 - and that's a bulge

09:59 - in the pattern we call these ridges

10:01 - in the west

10:02 - and this will sponsor a considerable heat

10:05 - over the rockies

10:07 - and moat most of the planes but notice the winds

10:10 - these white lines and we will be in the northwest flow

10:14 - and

10:15 - this area just to the east of a Ridge right about here is a favorite area for surface

10:21 - high pressure to develop

10:22 - and surface highs generally bring with them

10:25 - sinking air

10:27 - and relatively dry conditions

10:29 - and I think it will also deliver some less humid air

10:32 - into the commonwealth and notice how that general pattern

10:35 - where we stay in the northwest flow

10:38 - sticks around right through

10:40 - the middle of next week and even

10:42 - into the latter half of next week although this northwest flow

10:46 - will likely bring another cold front or

10:48 - frontal passage

10:49 - later next week

10:51 - so how does this all.

10:53 - Figure out in terms of total precipitation here's the European models idea

10:58 - this is through Saturday and notice

11:00 - painting here's some precipitation but notice how the colors

11:04 - once we.

11:05 - Go through the middle of next week the colors in

11:07 - Pennsylvania really don't change and that's a sign

11:10 - that

11:11 - there probably won't be much in the way of precipitate stations Sunday Monday Tuesday

11:15 - and Wednesday

11:16 - of next week so let's summarize it all

11:19 - we'll call it active early in this period

11:21 - and then drying out the Thursday through Friday period

11:24 - will likely feature scattered showers and thunderstorms

11:27 - especially in the afternoon

11:29 - and if you get under one of those heavier thunderstorms

11:32 - some folks could get an inch

11:34 - in parts of the commonwealth

11:36 - then on Saturday the drying out process starts

11:39 - a thunderstorm is still possible

11:41 - essential especially south and east of the mountains

11:44 - but then on Sunday

11:46 - and through Wednesday dry for the most part

11:49 - northwesterly flow delivering air that is not as humid

11:52 - as what we've had in place

11:55 - for much of the last week or so

11:56 - and then late next week another front

11:59 - could bring a thunderstorm that's far enough out in the

12:01 - period though that there's fairly low confidence in that.

12:05 - That will do it for water watch

12:07 - we will be back in a moment

12:09 - with more

12:10 - and

12:20 - and we'll see some scattered drips in some parts of the commonwealth as we go through

12:23 - this evening and like John just said where some of

12:25 - those showers do for them we could even see some

12:28 - locally heavy rainfall that concern is there with a flood watch for the Laurel

12:31 - highlands as we go through this evening so

12:33 - keep that in mind I think the scattered thunder showers

12:35 - and downpours will be tapering off after midnight

12:38 - but we're left with some drizzle and areas of dense fog temperatures in the sixty's

12:42 - so there's either side of average for this time of Europe

12:45 - on Wednesday we'll see high temperatures in the mid seventies and the laurels but

12:48 - eighties for most of us a bit brighter especially the farther north edge Hugo

12:52 - clouds hanging tough across south central

12:54 - Pennsylvania with even a few spotty showers possible

12:56 - and a laurels by the afternoon.

12:59 - A more widespread chance for showers and storms arrives on Thursday

13:02 - especially during the afternoon temperatures in the eighty's do points likely

13:06 - approaching seventy once again so it will be a steamy air mass

13:09 - I think once again we'll have that chance for some locally heavy rain and

13:12 - elis we heard from

13:13 - John tonight and water watch more chances for rain on the way

13:16 - as we go towards Friday of this week so maybe the best opportunity to do some

13:20 - mowing

13:21 - maybe tomorrow night

13:22 - yeah definitely I'm looking forward to that

13:24 - more comfortable day coming up tomorrow me too

13:27 - well that does it for us on the show tonight thank you Rob for your forecast coming

13:30 - up tomorrow world have the extended forecast as well as weather-wise

13:34 - to our viewers

13:35 - thank you for tuning in have a great evening.