00:00 - From the Ban Family Studios in the Department

00:03 - of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at Penn State.

00:07 - This is Weather World.

00:21 - Good evening Pennsylvania.

00:22 - I'm Ben Reppert, alongside Rob lighting and welcome

00:25 - to Weather World on this Tuesday night, another delightful June day.

00:28 - Rob, I think the only thing that has changed from

00:30 - yesterday is we switched which side of the set we're standing on.

00:33 - Everything else is pretty much a carbon copy, pretty much the same.

00:36 - Another day where we actually started off

00:38 - with temperatures on the cool side, windows, open weather to begin the day,

00:41 - and it'll be another cool night tonight, but temperatures will actually gradually

00:44 - tick upward the next few days.

00:46 - Okay, we'll let Rob fill in the details on that warming trend

00:48 - that will get underway here in just a moment.

00:51 - Also tonight it's time for another edition of Water Watch.

00:53 - That is our precipitation focus segment.

00:56 - We'll take a look at how we've been doing in the rain department.

00:58 - And look ahead to prospects for more rain in the next ten days.

01:01 - First, here's Rob, and thanks very much, Ben.

01:04 - As I mentioned,

01:04 - we started off with some windows, open weather across the Commonwealth today.

01:08 - Temperatures actually dropped all the way down

01:10 - into the upper 30s across the northwest plateau.

01:12 - Nailing that forecast yesterday Ben.

01:14 - By the way, most locations dropping into the 40s and lower 50s,

01:18 - I think we'll see 40s and 50s again tonight.

01:20 - But temperatures should rebound into the 70s and some 80s

01:24 - as we go into the day tomorrow out there, a beautiful sunrise.

01:27 - Penn State Dubois this morning,

01:30 - seeing some blue sky through much of the morning,

01:32 - then some afternoon cumulus with the heating of the day

01:34 - and a few of those clouds getting deep enough

01:36 - that you have the chance out there to maybe see a sprinkle.

01:39 - But most locations, over 90% of the Commonwealth, dry.

01:42 - As we went into our afternoon, a very comfortable day.

01:45 - Good for doing any yard work or planting outside.

01:48 - Today you see some of those cumulus popping up again.

01:50 - A stray sprinkle can't be ruled out this evening,

01:52 - but I don't see anything showing up on radar. No reports.

01:55 - And I think it's going to be beautiful weather for any grilling or outdoor plans

01:58 - this evening when a weak boundary pass through the Commonwealth.

02:02 - And that really tanked

02:02 - our dew points, dew points in the mid 30s to low to mid 40s for early June.

02:07 - Very comfortable air and this comfortable air mass will remain in place

02:10 - for the next couple of days.

02:13 - Here's a look at those temperatures this afternoon mid 60s in Johnstown.

02:16 - The cool spot meanwhile mid and upper 70s across southeast Pennsylvania.

02:20 - All in all a very comfortable day.

02:22 - Temperatures will be more seasonable as we go into the afternoon tomorrow.

02:27 - I did want to mention, by the way, on this date two years ago,

02:30 - we were in the middle of a heat wave.

02:31 - All the values you see shaded here in red, or places that actually exceeded

02:35 - daytime highs, that had stood for about 100 years or so

02:40 - in places like Williams port, Scranton, Harrisburg and Allentown mid 90s.

02:44 - So days like today, compared to this date, just two years ago.

02:48 - Not hard to take, that is for sure.

02:51 - As we take a look at what's happening across the the nation right

02:54 - now, you see kind of this pattern that Ben talked about last night.

02:57 - We'll talk more about that coming up in Water watch.

02:59 - But resembles an omega block.

03:01 - The Greek letter omega, the heat really surging across portions

03:05 - of the corn Belt 80s, there across, Minneapolis and International Falls.

03:10 - Meanwhile, cooler across the northeast and off towards the northern Rockies,

03:14 - the heat pretty much confined off to our south.

03:16 - We'll eventually tap into a bit more heat, but all in all, high pressure

03:18 - remains in control at the surface, and that will keep things dry

03:22 - and generally bright as we go into the middle of this week.

03:26 - Here's a look at the satellite radar picture across the nation today.

03:29 - A few showers popping up across parts of the Appalachians.

03:32 - Otherwise, we are quiet across the northeast.

03:35 - One storm system will sponsor some severe weather across the Dakotas

03:38 - as we go into this evening, but otherwise quiet conditions expected here

03:42 - from the Midwest.

03:43 - All the way into the northeast.

03:45 - Here's our surface setup.

03:46 - High pressure remains in control tonight.

03:48 - That will allow for some crumbling cumulus.

03:50 - I think we will see some high clouds

03:52 - build in, but all in all, a quiet night across the Keystone State.

03:56 - High pressure remains in control as we go into the day on Wednesday.

03:59 - I think we'll see Wall-to-wall sunshine tomorrow

04:01 - and not much change by the time we get to Thursday.

04:03 - By the way, we love the Carolinas, apparently on the surface map,

04:06 - but I see a good deal of sunshine going into our Thursday.

04:09 - But eventually our winds will shift and we'll put on some warmer air by then.

04:13 - So for tonight, we'll call it a jejune night.

04:15 - Very dull, quiet conditions, temperatures mid 40s to upper 50s.

04:20 - Not quite as chilly across the northwest plateau.

04:23 - Seasonably cool night gives way to a seasonable day

04:25 - on Wednesday, mid 70s to lower 80s for daytime highs.

04:29 - Still low humidity values across the commonwealth as well.

04:31 - I think those dew points remain in the 40s again.

04:34 - Wall-to-wall sunshine.

04:35 - These temperatures seasonable for this time of year widespread

04:38 - 50 is likely as we go into our Wednesday night.

04:41 - And then on Thursday we'll call it probably pool season feels more like

04:45 - more like pool weather.

04:46 - Temperatures upper 70s to upper 80s, about 8 to 10 degrees above average

04:50 - for this time of year.

04:51 - Few afternoon cumulus clouds,

04:52 - but otherwise a beautiful day here in Pennsylvania.

04:55 - We've got water watch coming up next.

05:29 - It's time for water watch.

05:30 - This is our precipitation focus segment where we take a look at how

05:34 - we've been doing in the rain department and look ahead to chances

05:37 - for any more precipitation over the course of the next ten days.

05:40 - Now that we are in the month of June,

05:42 - we can first wrap up the month of May in terms of what actually happened.

05:46 - Green values on this map know where precipitation in May was above average.

05:51 - Above that long term average.

05:53 - The orange values denote where May was running a deficit.

05:57 - Dubois is in gray because we actually hit the value

06:00 - right on the button bit of an even split between areas

06:03 - that were running a surplus in areas that were running a deficit.

06:05 - But overall, the same pattern that has been really holding strong

06:09 - going back to the start of the spring held true again, where

06:12 - central and northwestern areas generally did better

06:16 - in the Rain Department than areas southeast of the mountains.

06:19 - That held true once again in May, as it has done for a lot of the spring

06:24 - in fact, we can wrap that up to now that meteorological summer is underway.

06:27 - We can take a look at the preliminary results for meteorological Spring.

06:32 - This is group by Climate Division.

06:34 - Pennsylvania has ten of them.

06:35 - Green denotes above average.

06:37 - The oranges denote below average and you can also see the rankings

06:40 - for each climate division out of 134 years in the period of record.

06:45 - Again, this is preliminary, but it is shaping up to be a notably wet

06:48 - spring that just concluded in western and northern Pennsylvania.

06:52 - Maybe even top five wet as you get up toward the Northwest Plateau.

06:57 - So notably wet up there.

06:58 - Meanwhile, you get southeast of the mountains, notably dry,

07:02 - in fact, in the top 50, in terms of dry

07:05 - out of 134 years, preliminarily southeast of the mountains.

07:09 - So this disparity has led to actually an intensification of the drought

07:14 - in southeast PA, as we've eliminated any dryness in northwest PA.

07:19 - Here's the latest drought monitor on the left.

07:21 - No color once you get northwest of essentially Interstate 81.

07:25 - Meanwhile, southeast of Interstate 81, moderate

07:29 - and even severe drought remains entrenched southeast of the mountains.

07:33 - We go back about two months to the end of March.

07:36 - You can see how there was much more color on the drought monitor, but

07:39 - how we've eliminated some of the dryness in central and northern Pennsylvania.

07:44 - While those southeast areas have actually gotten worse.

07:47 - So we still certainly could use more regular opportunities

07:52 - for rain, particularly in southeast Pennsylvania.

07:55 - And we will explore those possibilities here in just a moment.

07:58 - That disparity also shows up on the latest soil moisture map on this

08:03 - you can see a lot of dry soils, especially in central

08:07 - and southeastern Pennsylvania,

08:08 - where the amount of moisture in the ground is running behind on where it should be.

08:12 - Even those wet spots in northwestern Pennsylvania, though, in terms

08:15 - of how much moisture is in the ground, you'll notice it's not overly

08:19 - wet there either, except perhaps once you get up toward Erie County.

08:23 - So even though in those areas that have been on the wetter side

08:27 - recently, it has not been overly wet, at least as we've gone

08:31 - through these last several weeks so we could use more precipitation.

08:35 - Unfortunately, especially for the areas that do need quite a bit of it's still,

08:39 - I don't think there is a lot in the cards over the course of the next ten days,

08:43 - as high pressure is going to try to remain generally in control around here.

08:48 - So this is the upper air pattern valid later this evening.

08:51 - We've had this persistent trough off the coast.

08:54 - And actually I tried to allude to this last night,

08:56 - but this overall weather pattern

08:58 - that has been a little bit blocked, we've had trough this in the West,

09:01 - a ridge of high pressure present through the central part of the U.S.,

09:04 - and then a trough that has lingered just to our east

09:08 - and in a pattern like this high pressure at the surface tends to exist

09:12 - just downstream of the crest of the ridge of high pressure aloft.

09:17 - So that would put it basically right over us right now.

09:20 - That's where it is.

09:21 - That's where it's been for a while.

09:23 - Hard to get a lot of precipitation when you're under the influence

09:26 - of a big ridge of high pressure

09:27 - that features a lot of sinking air and really reduces the risk of rain.

09:31 - This pattern largely holds through the rest of this week.

09:35 - You've already heard about how things will be warming up over the next few days,

09:38 - but not turning very rainy, that's for sure.

09:41 - Through the end of this week,

09:42 - I think there's no opportunity for precipitation really in Pennsylvania.

09:46 - Until the pattern tries to change.

09:48 - It will try to do so over the weekend.

09:50 - There's a dip in the jet stream right here, dropping out of southern Canada.

09:53 - That should push a front through here from late

09:56 - Saturday, centered on Sunday, maybe lingering into early Monday.

10:01 - So with this upper-level trough coming through over the weekend,

10:03 - that should push a front through.

10:05 - That should be enough to allow for some showers and thunderstorms to develop.

10:09 - Again, I think that centered on Sunday.

10:11 - After this, most of the guidance actually reverts to a pattern next week

10:16 - that is very reminiscent of this week's pattern,

10:19 - featuring a big ridge of high pressure developing once again to our west

10:24 - that would favor surface high pressure downstream of it, or pretty much

10:27 - right overhead once again.

10:29 - So I think most of next week will resemble this week's weather.

10:33 - Generally comfortable, not overly hot, not overly humid, but also not wet.

10:38 - It might once again be.

10:40 - We might be waiting until the very end of next week for that

10:43 - pattern to break down again, and there be another chance of rain

10:46 - that would be out about next Thursday or next Friday.

10:49 - I did want to point out

10:50 - that there are still 1 or 2 models with this current weekend system

10:55 - that dig this trough in, and then actually try to cut it off and have it linger.

10:59 - The GFS is one of those models, but at the moment that is the exception

11:03 - and not the rule.

11:04 - So I'm not really buying into this solution that we might actually

11:08 - turn rather wet starting this weekend and going into next week.

11:12 - If the GFS were to be right, that would be the case.

11:15 - It would be a better solution, but right now I'm really not buying into it.

11:19 - So in terms of actual precipitation

11:20 - amounts, as we go through the rest of this week,

11:22 - I mentioned it very little opportunity for a single rain drop in Pennsylvania,

11:27 - at least through late Friday into the start of Saturday.

11:30 - Then as we get into this weekend,

11:31 - that's when there is that opportunity for some rain.

11:33 - Although it does not look like any kind of drought buster for areas

11:37 - off to the south and east.

11:38 - So I'm calling it foot off the gas for growing grass through early Saturday.

11:43 - High pressure is in control.

11:45 - Very little opportunities for even a drop of rain in Pennsylvania this weekend.

11:49 - That front comes through with some showers and thunderstorms,

11:52 - although outside of some of those downpours,

11:54 - I think it's less than a half of an inch for most of us.

11:56 - Middle of next week.

11:57 - High pressure looks to take control again, very similar to this week.

12:01 - It might take until the very end of next week

12:04 - for another opportunity at showers and storms.

12:06 - That is water watch. We'll be right back.

12:20 - Continued quiet across the Commonwealth and I is not quite

12:23 - as chilly across the Northwest Plateau, but I still think it will be.

12:26 - Windows. Open weather once again.

12:28 - Temperatures dropping into the 40s and central Pennsylvania

12:31 - mid and upper 50s off to the south and east with some high clouds overhead.

12:35 - But this is a seasonably cool night

12:37 - and that will lead to a seasonable day on Wednesday.

12:39 - But we're dialing up a few more degrees.

12:41 - I think temperatures will make it into the mid

12:42 - 70s across the Laurel Highlands, lower 80s southeast of the mountains.

12:46 - Still comfortable, low humidity values

12:48 - expected on Wednesday with wall-to-wall sunshine and widespread 50s.

12:52 - As we begin our day on Thursday, temperatures continue

12:55 - that gradual increase upper 70s to upper 80 should do it

12:58 - for daytime highs on Thursday with some afternoon cumulus clouds.

13:01 - By the way, that's about 8 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year.

13:05 - But humidity remains on the low side on Thursday.

13:08 - Dew points still only in the 50s I think across the Commonwealth.

13:11 - So good weather for getting outside then.

13:13 - Yeah, I know a lot of farmers

13:14 - this week catching up on planting and hay making that they weren't

13:17 - really able to do at the end of May, so it has been a good week for that.

13:20 - Well, I was talking to my dad. He actually is making hay this week.

13:22 - He can't recall making hay this early in the season.

13:25 - Yeah, I'm sure the farmers will take it.

13:27 - Good news for the horses. That's right. Yep.

13:29 - All right. Thanks Rob for that forecast. Thank you for joining us.

13:32 - Come back tomorrow. It's a Wednesday night.

13:33 - We will update your extended forecast

13:35 - and have a weather-wise about the weather for the invasion of D day.

13:39 - We'll see them.