00:10 - Pcn capital preview i'm Francine shirts are

00:13 - today we'll talk about state politics

00:15 - but first we're joined by Angela Columbus investigative

00:18 - reporter for spotlight pa thanks for joining as.

00:21 - The morning

00:22 - you wrote about the sunshine law and the state lawmakers efforts to further clarify

00:26 - when it needs to be enacted for those unfamiliar can

00:28 - explain what the sunshine law is and what purpose it serves.

00:32 - So the sunshine law is basically the open meetings law for Pennsylvania

00:38 - and it requires governmental agencies to conduct their business

00:43 - and their deliberations in public and.

00:46 - Take any official votes in public

00:49 - and it's a very

00:51 - you know

00:51 - very empty current law for transparency

00:55 - because the more the public knows about what it's government is doing

01:00 - and the earlier it knows about what it's government is doing the more it can

01:04 - participate in that decision making.

01:07 - The state supreme court weighed in on circumstances where the sun

01:10 - sunshine light can be exempted what kind of exceptions

01:13 - they do they identify.

01:15 - Well first we should harken back to twenty twenty one that's when the legislature

01:19 - added a provision to the sunshine act which basically said

01:23 - you have to if you're a governmental agency and you're about to have a meeting you

01:27 - have to make your meeting agenda public twenty four at least twenty four hours ahead

01:31 - of time so that the public has time to review

01:34 - what is on the agenda and know what is happening.

01:37 - There are certain exceptions

01:40 - that when the legislature passed that twenty twenty one amendment

01:44 - that they put in there

01:45 - there are exceptions for emergency matters that come up

01:49 - there are exceptions for what is called de minimis

01:51 - matters or matters that are not not significant and don't

01:55 - involve the expenditure of taxpayer money and there there's

02:00 - a third and a fourth exception and this is where

02:02 - the supreme court decision comes in the third x

02:05 - exception is

02:07 - for for instance if a resident brings up a matter during

02:11 - a meeting

02:11 - that requires some sort of have again de minimis action

02:16 - and then there is this word or the fourth exception which

02:20 - is aboard a governmental entity can take up a vote on.

02:26 - A matter that has just been added to the agenda by a majority vote

02:30 - and that is where the rub happens

02:34 - and the supreme court decision in the recent supreme court decision comes in.

02:40 - State represent Bob Freeman is sponsoring legislation that would further clarify the

02:44 - circumstances around sunshine law exemptions and what exactly what is bill to.

02:50 - So the supreme court decision which came out late last year

02:54 - was a forty three decision.

02:56 - The issue was

02:57 - can a board it came down to that fourth exception the majority vote exception can

03:03 - aboard add a last minute vote to an agenda

03:07 - by a majority vote

03:09 - and.

03:10 - The supreme court

03:12 - basically said yes

03:13 - that language in the law allows that to occur

03:17 - and even though the other side had argued that it was bad for transparency and it

03:22 - went against the spirit of the law.

03:25 - The supreme court found that that word or basically

03:28 - allowed it to be a stand alone lone exceptions so

03:32 - representative Freeman's bill would tighten that language and make sure that the

03:37 - fourth exception is not a stand alone exception

03:40 - and instead become sort of a procedural aspect

03:44 - where if you

03:45 - if somebody if a board wants to take a last minute

03:48 - action on an emergency or a dem venomous matter

03:51 - it would have to then first

03:54 - have a majority vote to allow it to come up

03:57 - how are lawmakers reacting to representative Freeman's proposal.

04:01 - It has

04:02 - it has a lot of support it has bipartisan support i don't anticipate that it will be

04:07 - an issue in terms of being approved i think

04:10 - the legislatures intent in twenty twenty one

04:13 - was to make it

04:15 - very difficult for a board to

04:17 - add a last minute measure to an agenda because

04:20 - you know

04:21 - you don't want controversial things that have not been advertised ahead of time to

04:27 - come up and you don't want any government entity to take advantage of that so i don't

04:33 - anticipate that there will be pushback

04:35 - i think the worrisome sometimes in all of these

04:38 - with all of these big bills like the sunshine act is if you open it up to an

04:43 - amendment what else is somebody going to bring up at the last minute.

04:47 - As someone who's made a career in journalism how important is the sun

04:50 - sunshine law to your ability to cover the workings of government.

04:54 - It's huge i mean being able to have access to an agenda ahead of time to study an

04:59 - issue to figure out what the prob pozole is what the potential pitfalls are.

05:04 - Are huge in our ability to inform the public about what is actually happening and if

05:09 - there are any hidden provisions in an issue or a policy that they should know about.

05:15 - Angela Columbus thank you so much for joining us this morning.

05:18 - Thank you for having me

05:19 - more of the pcn capital preview after the sharp break.

05:24 - Want to know what's new on your favorite PC and series

05:27 - looking to stay up to date with state leadership and government activities subscribe

05:31 - to pcn newsletters and stay informed about everything Pennsylvania

05:35 - get exclusive previews

05:36 - behind the scenes insights

05:38 - and can't miss recommendations delivered straight to your inbox

05:41 - choose the information that's important to you

05:44 - it's free it's easy

05:45 - and it's just a click away

05:47 - sign up for your all access pass to everything

05:50 - Pennsylvania visit PC and TV dot com to sign up today.

05:55 - Al.

06:16 - Wake up to the pcn capital preview live mondays and Tuesdays at nine am

06:21 - easy and is

06:22 - everything Pennsylvania politics and policy.

06:26 - Welcome back our guests today are Mark single former

06:28 - Pennsylvania lieutenant governor and acting governor

06:31 - and Charlie Jerome ceo of quantum communications

06:35 - the governor's exp

06:35 - to present his state budget address tomorrow we're also heading into a governor's

06:39 - race and midterm elections Charlie will start with you

06:42 - how much of what happens in Pennsylvania will be influenced by what's been happening

06:45 - at the federal level under the trump administration

06:48 - while i think some will be it's always

06:50 - a situation where the state

06:52 - budget and state politics are influenced by the natural level but particularly right

06:57 - now i think it's going to be enhanced.

07:00 - Arc your thoughts.

07:02 - Well without question i think you can't escape what's happening in Washington

07:06 - and in fact i think it shows some very

07:08 - positive signs for democrats

07:10 - in all of the races

07:12 - all twenty five of the special election races

07:15 - have been held in the last couple of months

07:18 - the democrats have over performed and won

07:20 - every one of those seats that we're float i think that

07:24 - jails the jail i think people are tired of the chaos in Washington it's going to

07:28 - impact politics here in Pennsylvania in November for sure

07:32 - Mark Martin editorial

07:33 - that appeared in pen live on January twenty fourth entitled

07:35 - when nobody believes the president anymore and quote

07:38 - you right

07:39 - quote the real damage is that the credibility and moral leadership of the united

07:42 - states of america is declining day by day and quote

07:45 - what has president trump done to make you see him as an incredible.

07:50 - While the most recent example was his performance

07:53 - over in demos.

07:55 - You can't go up in front of all of your allies and attacked

07:58 - viciously like he did

08:00 - and castigate them and then expect for their support

08:04 - and then to top it off he goes on this cockamamie idea

08:08 - about just simply

08:09 - taking Greens

08:10 - Greenland mean there's no

08:12 - possible way that that makes any sense

08:15 - it would be like Canada saying to us hey

08:17 - we're going to attack Montana tomorrow

08:20 - so i think that he's losing credibility on the international stage

08:24 - and i think it translates to a lot of people saying we

08:27 - we might want to rethink whether or not we want anybody like

08:31 - near the presidency again.

08:33 - Charlie that's well marked by friend has suffered from

08:36 - talk trump derangement syndrome for a long time so

08:39 - it's not

08:40 - surprising to me that he would write an editorial like that Francine

08:44 - but i mean

08:44 - what the president did in davos a lot of people think was a good idea to tell some of

08:49 - our allies that they needed to get their act together

08:52 - and many of them have

08:54 - the other response wasn't what

08:56 - have

08:56 - folks

08:57 - on the left are suggesting in fact that was precisely the opposite

09:01 - no we shouldn't invade Greenland

09:03 - but look what the president came up with

09:05 - you know all this rigmarole on the left and

09:08 - he got a working arrangement for

09:11 - the us to get

09:13 - the interest in Greenland that we need and want

09:15 - let's talk a little bit about Pennsylvania's

09:17 - elections president trump into our Stacy garrity

09:20 - republican candidate i

09:21 - anticipated to be running again shapiro in the fall

09:24 - will hit her alliance with president trump help or hurt her campaign

09:28 - i think it helps i mean.

09:30 - It's not surprising that the president of

09:32 - the eight any party he is going to the dorset gubernatorial candidate

09:36 - in any state so i mean that's not really

09:39 - all that newsworthy

09:40 - but the garrity base is

09:43 - largely folks that like Donald trump and that's

09:45 - what she has to secure before she can move into

09:48 - chipping away

09:50 - at Josh shapiro's

09:51 - mile wide and an inch deep

09:53 - support.

09:55 - Maxing out

09:56 - the

09:56 - line

09:57 - of course i disagree with that the fact of the matter

09:59 - is that Josh shapiro has built a very strong following

10:02 - i think his numbers are very

10:04 - strong

10:05 - he has recorded some significant wins

10:08 - economic development and

10:10 - energy develop just recently announced a

10:13 - huge one

10:14 - in the area of life science investments and things like that so.

10:18 - He has been getting stuff done just like he said

10:22 - and people know that

10:23 - and just remember in all twenty five of those

10:25 - races i mentioned previously trump endorsed

10:28 - the loser so the fact of the matter is that his shine is

10:33 - is weakening

10:34 - and i do not think that it's going to help but

10:37 - guarantee very much at all in the fall yet i want to point out that Mark keeps

10:40 - talking about these twenty five races the Republicans

10:43 - didn't lose most of them have talked about

10:45 - out performing well you know that's

10:48 - in the eye of the behold the Republicans won most

10:50 - of those and so president trump endorsed the winner

10:53 - in most of those races.

10:55 - Last week state security also endorsed Jason

10:57 - ricci as her presumptive lieutenant governor

11:00 - running mate

11:01 - Mark

11:01 - he served as lieutenant governor

11:02 - what importance does the lieutenant governor bring to to balancing out the ticket.

11:08 - First of all remember that they have to run

11:10 - separately in Pennsylvania it's very hot the

11:13 - governor can't really select a running mate.

11:17 - They can indicate a preference which has occurred in this case in which Kurt

11:21 - in my case

11:22 - when i ran with the governor

11:24 - Casey

11:25 - but he still has to go on slug it out if there are any other contenders

11:29 - now he has to win that race

11:31 - and in the primary in order to get on the ticket.

11:35 - What the lieutenant governor can do is to provide some energy and fresh legs and.

11:41 - You know

11:42 - getting into areas where the governor

11:45 - and tour probably shouldn't be

11:47 - i mean it's not possible for gubernatorial candidate

11:49 - to be at every chicken dinner in that state

11:52 - during the election season

11:53 - so believe me i ate a lot of

11:56 - chicken and beans all over the smaller counties in Pennsylvania

12:00 - and i would look for the lieutenant governor to play that kind of role the candidate.

12:05 - Well now we know what Mark's problem has been through all the

12:08 - stuff

12:09 - no

12:09 - logic tiley correct

12:11 - because the governor and the lieutenant governor run

12:14 - separately in the primary not the general but in the primary

12:17 - if there are other challengers

12:19 - Jason wish you will have to slug it out without my sense though

12:23 - Francine is that because of Stacey guarantees

12:26 - endorsement the field will likely be cleared

12:28 - there there may be another candidate or two

12:31 - but i don't think it's going to be a

12:33 - serious primary situation.

12:36 - Are you familiar with Jason Richard

12:37 - speak it I'll see what he could bring to the cat to the candidates he

12:40 - yeah Jason is somebody that kind of came out of the blue he ran for governor four

12:44 - years ago and dropped out relatively early

12:47 - but he really didn't have much political IQ experienced prior to that he was a lawyer

12:51 - in Pittsburgh he has since become

12:53 - the county chairman of the allegheny county Republicans.

12:58 - Generally speaking i think Mark would agree with this county chairman don't run for

13:03 - major office so it's going to be kind of interesting to see how all this works out to

13:07 - governor Josh pair of publishers biography where we keep the light last week Mark

13:11 - single what's the purpose of releasing a memoir at this point in his career.

13:15 - He's running for president.

13:17 - It's almost

13:18 - i think it's almost mandatory for a candidate

13:20 - who is being taken seriously nationwide

13:24 - to

13:24 - give a little bit more information

13:27 - and if you want that information to be accurate you want to get it out there yourself

13:31 - so

13:32 - i think it's a

13:33 - smart idea for him to

13:35 - issue something other than auto bio biography at this

13:38 - point although this is right in the middle of his career.

13:41 - So

13:42 - i think that that was a strategic move and

13:44 - i think it also presents

13:47 - some human

13:48 - aspects to the governor that you might not have otherwise now.

13:52 - What stood out about the governor's biography.

13:54 - Josh shapiro surprisingly likes to take credit for a lot of things that he really

13:58 - didn't have that much to do with and this

14:01 - book is replete with those kinds of things

14:03 - he

14:04 - don't want to say milks it but he takes great advantage of the attack on the

14:09 - governor's residence and

14:11 - you know.

14:12 - Read hashes that multiple times as he has

14:14 - throughout the past

14:16 - couple of years.

14:17 - Locks exactly right he's running for president and

14:20 - folks that want to run for president write a book

14:23 - they sometimes vitamin the tale though as you can remember through the years that

14:27 - i'm particularly

14:29 - recalling Steve friend who wrote a book

14:31 - prior to running for the yosemite goes through inspecting all inspector use quotes

14:35 - out of that book throughout the entire campaign

14:37 - where i think.

14:39 - Josh apparel may have a problem

14:41 - is with his constant running for other offices and he

14:45 - recounts the conversation that he had with carmella Harris

14:48 - about how difficult it is

14:50 - to be out on the campaign trail while trying to do job as in her case

14:54 - us senator which is a lot less tough

14:57 - time wise

14:58 - than being governor of a major state

15:00 - think the people of Pennsylvania are going to be and asked that question

15:03 - he wants to run for president

15:04 - why does he run for president why does he run

15:06 - for governor again

15:08 - and then trot around the country on the taxpayer's

15:11 - dime as the highest paid paid governor in the nation

15:14 - to run for president.

15:17 - Well i

15:17 - i

15:18 - reject that notion i think it is possible to

15:20 - walk and chew gum at the same time and he's particularly good at it

15:24 - i think that to

15:26 - Josh shapiro is a

15:27 - really perform well and actually has gotten a lot done

15:32 - and it

15:33 - is very good

15:34 - on the

15:35 - talk show circuit.

15:37 - He makes a lot of appearances and all those cable shows and things like that and

15:41 - i

15:42 - normally

15:43 - it's a

15:44 - it's a high risk

15:45 - kind of thing

15:46 - if you make a misstatement or if you were out of line in any way

15:50 - it's going to be amplified a thousand times

15:52 - that has not happened thus far and it's a

15:54 - testimony

15:56 - to how he can hang bdl the pressure

15:58 - of big time media and the pressures of being governor so

16:02 - if anybody has prepared to make this journey

16:06 - i think it is Josh shapiro so i'm

16:08 - looking forward to him.

16:10 - Jumping into this race

16:12 - at the appropriate time.

16:14 - Within the book Josh shapiro talks a little bit about and

16:17 - his interview for vice president and he questions whether or not his Jewish faith

16:21 - and.

16:23 - Weighed in at all on during those

16:25 - discussions

16:26 - and what does he have to gain by perhaps calling out some national figures

16:30 - within the Democratic party.

16:34 - Well

16:34 - to be honest with you there

16:36 - is one section in the book that i wish would have been

16:39 - dropped on the editor's

16:40 - you know.

16:41 - Table.

16:43 - He didn't need to go there

16:44 - those were private conversations between him and kind of Harris

16:48 - and whatever decision she made and on what basis she made them

16:53 - like

16:54 - really should have been

16:55 - between that

16:57 - so i i don't think there's anything to be gained by.

17:02 - Taking on that part nuclear aspect or any national figures

17:06 - i think what you want to do and this would be

17:08 - very refreshing in today's age if you're going

17:11 - to be a candidate for president or president

17:13 - is be upbeat be visionary be positive

17:16 - and don't

17:18 - don't denigrate other people and

17:20 - don't accentuate the negatives of folks

17:23 - Josh shapiro is

17:25 - a relentlessly positive and that is a

17:27 - direct.

17:29 - Counter

17:30 - to the current regime that's for sure.

17:34 - Charlie he mentioned a moment ago

17:36 - whether or not it might be an issue that Joshua Powell is running for governor and

17:40 - there's an anticipation that he's going to run for president as well

17:43 - Stacy Gary garrity spoke about that during her parents at the press club earlier this

17:47 - early in January

17:48 - would it be a similar concern for her that she is currently serving as treasurer and

17:52 - she would have to leave that office if she were successful it became governor

17:55 - well that's up to her to make that decision i

17:57 - just want to get back to something that my friend.

18:00 - Governor she.

18:01 - Single said

18:03 - i agree with him that you know kiss and tell.

18:07 - Recounts of private conversations are not a good place to go

18:11 - but where i would disagree with him is i think and

18:14 - i'm going to give Josh shapiro little kudo here

18:16 - his calling out the anti-semitism in the democrat party

18:20 - is very important.

18:22 - The far left of the Democratic party has become virulently anti semitic

18:26 - and i think that the American people really need to reflect on that

18:30 - and ask whether or not

18:32 - that's where any of us want to be and i think

18:33 - the ants there should be a resounding no

18:36 - and i will give

18:37 - Josh shapiro credit

18:38 - for calling them out on that.

18:41 - But like

18:42 - he may have called them out on it really certainly

18:44 - didn't suggest that the entire left wing of the

18:47 - Democratic party is anti semitic or not

18:50 - and that is a

18:52 - that's a canard that has been

18:53 - foisted upon the democrats largely coming directly

18:56 - from the white house and from the maga troops

18:58 - and that simply isn't so the democrat

19:01 - remain a

19:01 - party of a big tent

19:03 - and if in fact there are some folks that are saying things

19:06 - that are inappropriate they are a tiny tiny fraction

19:11 - of the

19:11 - thought process of the Democratic party so

19:14 - i just wanted to make that clear

19:15 - well we would disagree on that it's not a tiny

19:17 - tiny fraction i could give you an arm's length list

19:21 - of major democrats who have made a virulently anti semitic comments

19:26 - and who stand for that

19:27 - and

19:28 - Paul suggest

19:29 - that a lot of folks on the Democratic left

19:31 - are

19:32 - at the core

19:33 - anti semitic

19:34 - and Josh shapiro pointed out that

19:36 - in that interview one of the concerns was

19:39 - Minnesota

19:40 - for example where does it go huge Somali

19:41 - population and that would be a problem for him

19:44 - to run as a Jew.

19:46 - Do you think that faith will play a huge role in this in this race.

19:51 - Josh appear clearly wants faith to be

19:54 - a part of this race he's made it very very clear that he's proud of his Jewish

19:57 - heritage and his Jewish faith there's a practicing Jew and

20:00 - a devout one

20:01 - Stacy Garrett he is a devout Christian

20:04 - i don't know how much of a dividing line that is politically

20:08 - but both candidates have evidence that they want there faith to be

20:11 - a part of the discussion i think that's a good thing.

20:18 - Most agree with that but it's twisting the reality a little bit

20:21 - and because there's an entire campaign being launched against people who are not

20:26 - long

20:27 - the normal

20:28 - average

20:29 - white person variety in the united states you mentioned Minnesota

20:33 - i mean the governor has basically envy they did that stayed

20:37 - with with ice agents

20:39 - looking for people who are brown and black and have a latino name

20:43 - ah and

20:44 - this this this ice

20:46 - kind of hook thuggery that is going on across the country

20:49 - is based largely

20:51 - on a a kind of a

20:53 - a

20:53 - racial bias that is simply unacceptable lol in this country

20:56 - this is not about immigration

20:59 - this is about inflicting his

21:01 - will upon people

21:03 - and trying to

21:04 - eliminate

21:05 - the opportunity of people of different colors

21:09 - of voting and it's ridiculous so i'm i'm

21:12 - i'm i really get

21:13 - dirt

21:14 - on

21:14 - a little bit test three when people talk about biases

21:18 - because we're saying bias is coming from the

21:19 - highest level in this country and it's wrong.

21:23 - Well let me speak to that issue as a person of color

21:27 - and as an immigrant somebody who held a green card for many years.

21:32 - It's very very interesting to see that the guy that's being

21:35 - ww vilified

21:36 - is Tom holman.

21:38 - Tom homan was Barack Obama's guy on immigration policy

21:43 - Barack Obama deported many many many many

21:46 - many more people than the trump administration

21:49 - the folks that

21:50 - should be concerned are illegal immigrants not legal immigrants

21:54 - and what has gone on in Minnesota ota

21:56 - that we're not talking about is the incredible fraud

22:00 - that has been perpetrated against the American taxpayers

22:03 - by groups that are affiliated

22:05 - with the far left of the Democratic party it has been an outrage

22:10 - and Tim walz there

22:11 - had to drop out of the race because of what happened on his watch

22:15 - somebody that was arc has been happy to applaud through the months.

22:20 - It's so wrong

22:21 - it's just so wrong and i i

22:23 - i

22:23 - i love and respect my

22:25 - college

22:26 - Charlie drew and i wish him nothing but well

22:29 - in

22:30 - going forward but he's dead wrong about this

22:33 - what happened in Minnesota was that there was

22:36 - some very limited fraud that had to do with welfare payments and things like that

22:41 - happen then one or two of the perpetrators were Somali doctors and so

22:46 - that became the excuse

22:48 - that became the reason for the incursion

22:50 - and for the president

22:52 - to gaslight the entire country and saying there's rampant fraud in Minnesota

22:56 - Minnesota was

22:58 - why

22:58 - they didn't need two thousand

23:00 - ice agents to come in and threatened people

23:02 - and frankly execute two American citizens

23:06 - for no apparent reason

23:07 - this is wrong what's going on in this country and i'm sorry

23:11 - i am not going to be quiet about it.

23:13 - Either if you're seeing evidence of how federal immigration policy is having

23:17 - repercussions here in Pennsylvania and within our legislature

23:20 - i haven't seen that much of it yet Francine if it's there i haven't really seen it

23:26 - but again

23:26 - you know

23:27 - much says it was small fraud in Minnesota there's nobody

23:31 - that's going to make that case there simply is i have

23:34 - great respect from work with that a lot of fun through the years but to say it was

23:38 - was billions of dollars i mean this is this tough

23:40 - you know that Everett dirksen used to say

23:42 - was a million dollars here and a million dollars there

23:45 - doubts a billion dollars here and a billion dollars there and

23:48 - pretty soon you're talking about real money

23:49 - this is the American taxpayers' money

23:51 - that was

23:52 - defrauded criminally they've had criminal

23:54 - convictions over this are going to have more

23:57 - and they should.

23:59 - Let's shift our focus back to

24:01 - the governor's race if i may and

24:03 - is Joshua pair available.

24:07 - Well

24:08 - i always

24:09 - always suggest the candidates run scared

24:11 - you have to assume that your vehicle.

24:14 - Isn't that ratio

24:15 - because it gives you the incentive to put that much more energy into it.

24:19 - So i would never say that any candidate is

24:22 - completely unbeatable

24:24 - however and his numbers are very good good.

24:26 - It looks like they are holding.

24:28 - Your

24:29 - nerve

24:30 - very good fashion

24:31 - and

24:31 - a lot depends on

24:33 - how he

24:34 - interacts with the

24:36 - the legislature

24:38 - what happens with the budget what kind of things develop in the next six months and i

24:43 - think as governor you're holding a lot of cart

24:45 - so i'm pretty confident that he's going to get reelected

24:48 - although i would never ever say it's a slam dunk.

24:53 - What we would agree

24:54 - you know.

24:56 - I would also say you know Stacey guy is going to run from behind i think she

24:59 - understands that most of the Republicans I've talked to understand that

25:03 - the question is

25:04 - how.

25:06 - Quickly can she close that gap

25:08 - you know the polling data that I've seen Francine suggests that while

25:12 - Josh shapiro is quote unquote popular

25:14 - that it's a mile wide and inch deep if you ask people

25:16 - do you like Josh appear they say yes if you say why.

25:20 - You get crickets

25:22 - because there isn't really

25:24 - a

25:24 - defined sense for most voters as to why they like and

25:27 - they just kind of think he's a nice guy and that's true

25:31 - of most incumbent governor she don't need to go very far to find that to be the case

25:35 - in other state so

25:37 - yes he will run from the front

25:38 - he will be better funded

25:40 - he's already

25:41 - amassed a huge

25:42 - war chest from campaigning around the country

25:45 - looking for dollars elsewhere

25:46 - so he will have a decided advantage but

25:50 - the race is anything but over

25:51 - and i think that Stacey guarantee can make it a horse race and

25:54 - potentially could win

25:55 - what to stay i think already offers a candidate.

25:58 - Well

25:58 - a as a candidate

26:00 - separate and apart from her record which is stellar in public office

26:04 - she's somebody that has amassed more votes than

26:06 - any republican ever in the history of Pennsylvania

26:09 - she has beaten democrats that

26:11 - folks thought she would not be able to beat Joe torsella was a

26:14 - widely acclaimed state treasure she beat him

26:17 - and so she's

26:18 - come out of the blue

26:20 - won elections won reelection by a huge margin

26:24 - and as a proven vote getter.

26:27 - Do you think that last year's

26:29 - budget impasse is going to have any influence or impact on this year's

26:32 - race for governor.

26:34 - Relatively small i mean these impasses as you know

26:37 - Francine have become the rule rather than the exception

26:40 - at

26:40 - the hundred days that we went last year was a little longer than most but

26:44 - we've seen it before and i don't think that most people.

26:49 - In everyday life take

26:50 - to too much.

26:52 - Attention to it those of us that deal with these issues on a daily basis

26:57 - take it much more seriously i think.

27:00 - I

27:01 - agree with that except for the fact that

27:04 - the legislature is making a mistake by dragging it out in an election year

27:09 - because i was reading up on this just recently and over the last two decades

27:14 - the polling indicates that when there is a budget impasse

27:19 - population is more much more likely to blame the legislature

27:23 - rather than the governor

27:25 - the reason for that is very simple

27:27 - the governor makes his presentation on say old February

27:31 - three

27:33 - and they don't get around to it

27:35 - to passing it until October.

27:37 - The average voter says what what took you so long what are you doing

27:41 - there in the legislature

27:42 - and it's a legitimate beef

27:44 - here we are in groundhog day and

27:46 - just like the movie it's the same thing over and over again

27:50 - shapiro is going to make his presentation and it's going

27:52 - to take the legislature months to even get around to it

27:55 - i think they're making a mistake i think they

27:57 - should all get together on a bipartisan basis

28:00 - and pass this in a timely fashion

28:02 - so that they can

28:03 - both.

28:04 - Avoid political recriminations.

28:08 - Well i think Mark makes an interesting point and yes voters blame the legislature

28:13 - who they don't blame is their individual legislate

28:16 - tour which is a historic fact this well it

28:18 - always kind of

28:20 - curious to those of us that have to deal with that but i think

28:23 - France a where

28:24 - the discussion is going to center

28:26 - is on the astronomic inc Greece's in spending

28:30 - under the chaparral and wolfe administrations

28:32 - up sixty four per cent

28:35 - from one Tom corbett left office and i'd ask work with the state budget

28:39 - let's what he left office

28:40 - the American people and

28:42 - the American people that Pennsylvania voters in Pennsylvania taxpayers

28:46 - simply can't afford

28:47 - these gargantuan join

28:49 - increases in spending.

28:52 - Charlie always makes the point about.

28:55 - Gargantuan increases in spending but let me remind you that.

28:58 - The Republicans agreed to that spending last year

29:01 - the Republicans agreed to a budget that went over fifty billion dollars

29:06 - that is a huge number there's no question about it

29:10 - the real question is.

29:12 - Are those programs that are funded by that money worthwhile.

29:16 - Should they be cut in some fashion

29:18 - can you be very specific about what should be cut and which should be retained

29:23 - that is the art of good governing

29:25 - the fact of the matter is that shapiro.

29:28 - Rightfully says

29:29 - that even after this fiscal year year is over

29:33 - there will still be seven point six billion dollars

29:36 - in a rainy day fund

29:38 - so we have met the priorities of the state we have spent what we need to spend

29:42 - on economic development and roads and.

29:45 - Education and what have you

29:48 - and there's still a cushion

29:50 - for us

29:50 - should things go wrong

29:52 - now.

29:53 - I don't think you should be frivolous i don't think you should spend

29:56 - no more money

29:58 - than you can afford

29:59 - but i think we're

30:00 - probably right at that right sweet spot right at the moment

30:04 - we already have

30:05 - we already have spent way more

30:07 - than we should have Francine and there is a structural deficit

30:11 - the independent fiscal office says it's somewhere around seven billion

30:14 - there are estimates that it's more than that

30:16 - that not only chews up the rainy day fund

30:18 - but digs into taxpayers' pockets once again

30:21 - if

30:21 - a sixty four percent increase

30:25 - under the administrations of Tom wolfe and Josh shapiro

30:28 - is acceptable

30:30 - while then

30:31 - taxpayers have to ask because my f

30:33 - it gone up sixty four percent in that time is our

30:35 - household income gone up by that

30:38 - we're going to continue

30:39 - just a mama prefers let's give our guests a break

30:41 - while we look at what pcn is covering this week

30:44 - governor Josh shapiro will present his new

30:46 - state budget to a joint legislative session

30:48 - former legislative leaders Jake corman and build a

30:50 - waste will give us a preview of the governor's plan

30:53 - and then after the speech will bring you laugh make a reaction from the state capital

30:57 - it all starts live tomorrow morning at eleven am.

31:00 - On the issues this week burwood used from the Floyd center

31:04 - of opinion research at Franklin and Marshall college

31:06 - gives his analysis of the governor's new budget

31:09 - that's tomorrow at seven pm.

31:11 - Right after that we turned to funding for children's programs with kerry king from

31:15 - Pennsylvania partnerships for children

31:17 - she'll be here Wednesday at seven thirty.

31:20 - Journalists roundtable this week returns with Stephen caruso

31:24 - of spotlight pa Justin schweitzer of city and state pa

31:27 - and Whitney downward from the Pennsylvania capitol star

31:30 - journalists roundtable airs Thursday nights at seven

31:33 - now onto history and culture of programming this morning in punxsutawney the most

31:37 - famous groundhog in the world emerged from his burrow

31:40 - and made his annual weather forecast

31:43 - watch Phil's prediction tonight at eight.

31:46 - America celebration of it's two hundred and fiftieth birthday continues with Alice Paul

31:50 - women's rights activist from the early twentieth century three

31:54 - that's Tuesday night

31:55 - at eight pm.

31:57 - You can watch this show and all of our public affairs

31:59 - programming free of charge by visiting PC and select dot com

32:03 - while you're there you can download our streaming service PC and select.

32:07 - Pcm is everything Pennsylvania where a five oh one c three nonprofit television

32:12 - network that relies on viewers like you

32:14 - to make a donation visit PC and TV dot com

32:17 - let's get back into our discussion we were talking about the election and

32:20 - specifically if you're looking at voter registration

32:22 - Republicans are closing the gap on democrats in Pennsylvania voter registration

32:26 - Charlie why do you think that shift is happening

32:28 - well for a variety of reasons it'd be a truly great thing

32:30 - the republican party of Pennsylvania has really become

32:33 - the pa rt of working people

32:35 - and as a result you see

32:37 - massive shifts in the areas that once were Democratic controlled

32:41 - to the republican party both by

32:43 - registration and by voting pattern

32:46 - where you see

32:47 - the trend going the other ways and the very wealthy suburbs around Philadelphia.

32:52 - Mark why do you think this shift is happening and

32:54 - what are democrats trying to do to counteract that.

32:59 - It is happening but i think this goes back a generation there was a time when

33:03 - people would register republican and vote democrat or registered democrat

33:08 - voted republican it was really the Reagan democrat

33:12 - phenomenon

33:12 - that occurred

33:13 - and that kind of to a whole

33:15 - nother was exacerbated by the whole the maga movement

33:18 - where people were robbed

33:20 - or

33:21 - Oklahoma

33:22 - enter religious fervor

33:24 - voting for a Grant.

33:27 - Contributed to it as well

33:30 - but

33:30 - the fundamental reality is that there are differences between

33:34 - Republicans and democrats and no.

33:37 - It's not because the Republicans are on the side of the working men all of a sudden

33:42 - if that were the case

33:43 - we wouldn't have passed the big ugly bill at the federal level

33:47 - that

33:47 - constant legs out from under social programs and

33:50 - things that working Americans need and

33:53 - funding for jobs and great and you know that kind of thing

33:56 - healthcare

33:57 - we're going to have

33:58 - made major

33:58 - on our budget because we don't have the money to pay for snap

34:02 - programs food for children.

34:05 - Supplementing the.

34:07 - Short foliage gonna be made because of the

34:10 - for the inability to extend the tax credit

34:13 - on obamacare

34:14 - so the policies of the Republicans are still

34:17 - very much for the very very wealthy

34:20 - and very much against

34:22 - the poor and working families of this country

34:25 - i think that people have got to come back home to that Riyadh city

34:28 - and i think that's starting to happen.

34:32 - Well the very very wealthy in this country now are largely

34:35 - democrats let's face it that's just a reality in effect

34:38 - and the Republicans

34:40 - programs have been for folks that have to stretch

34:43 - a budget to make ends meet

34:45 - those things have been working well

34:47 - and they have rooted out the

34:49 - mismanagement inefficiency and outright fraud and some of the programs that

34:54 - the

34:55 - former governor

34:56 - just delineated a moment ago i mean these things have not worked well

35:00 - and

35:01 - the Republicans have

35:02 - seen to it that they're working much better

35:05 - in delivering to the American people what they need and deserve

35:08 - without taxing them to death.

35:10 - His voter registration

35:12 - grants

35:12 - please go ahead and

35:13 - search programs like surrogate

35:15 - taking a meat axe to them

35:17 - you know the fact of the matter is that half of the Pennsylvania budget

35:20 - is

35:21 - for education

35:23 - and for medicare

35:24 - for healthcare benefits for people who

35:26 - are not afford them

35:28 - themselves.

35:29 - There are major holes than that caused by this

35:32 - republican.

35:34 - Focus

35:35 - on reducing taxes for the very wealthy

35:38 - while increasing costs to the very poor

35:41 - that's really what's happening here and we're adjusting to it in Pennsylvania

35:45 - because we have to.

35:47 - And that's

35:48 - simply not true i mean

35:49 - it's that's a

35:50 - the

35:50 - canard a democrat talking point for a long time

35:53 - that we're

35:54 - helping out the wealthy at the expense of the poor that's not what

35:57 - the tax policies

35:59 - of the republican administrations recently have done they've been

36:02 - tax cuts for

36:03 - middle class

36:04 - tax payers

36:05 - but.

36:07 - What's the single most mentioned just a moment ago

36:10 - the education component of the Pennsylvania budget the biggest piece in there

36:14 - we have poured

36:16 - millions and billions of dollars into education and the real question is

36:20 - have we gotten commensurate results

36:23 - because we have in

36:24 - our education programs here have lagged behind and

36:27 - the national averages

36:29 - have lagged behind

36:30 - the national standards

36:31 - our kids are having a trouble in many many systems

36:34 - reading and writing at the grade levels they should be

36:37 - and yet we just pour more and more dollars in the question is

36:41 - has there been true accountability

36:44 - for those dollars.

36:47 - If i Grant

36:48 - Charlie the premise

36:50 - that we have spent too much in education over

36:53 - the years and i think you can make that case.

36:57 - The real question is where

37:00 - do you cut

37:01 - how do you go about equalizing payments to districts in Pennsylvania.

37:06 - What are the programs that work what are the programs that don't work

37:10 - it's not

37:11 - practical and it's dangerous simply to say well

37:13 - we're spending too much so we're going to cut.

37:16 - Tell me what the programs are.

37:18 - If somebody makes a case that we're overspending

37:21 - the rational question is

37:23 - what do you want me to cut do you want me to cut daycare

37:26 - do you want me to cut

37:28 - pre.

37:29 - Pre k education do you want me to cut child nutrition

37:33 - programs in schools that have proven to be wildly effective

37:37 - do you want me to cut money to nursing homes

37:39 - so that your parents aren't getting the care they deserve

37:42 - tell me where you're going to cut.

37:45 - When you talk about overspending

37:47 - i think we have to be very specific about those thanks.

37:51 - I would agree with that i think that we do

37:53 - need to be very specific and i think we can be

37:56 - i would love to see a grace commission type of program

38:00 - enacted in Pennsylvania to look at education and particularly but in all programs

38:04 - because the

38:05 - inefficiency and mismanagement and waste

38:08 - an absolute fraud that has been.

38:11 - Endemic in some of those situations

38:14 - needs to be rooted out and then you could say

38:16 - here's where we can

38:17 - recognize significant savings without sacrificing any performance

38:22 - what do you expect to see the governor's budget address tomorrow

38:25 - i think it will be very modest.

38:28 - He got basically what he wanted last year

38:31 - and i i don't disagree with Mark that Republicans

38:33 - were complicit in that it grieves me to say that

38:37 - but they were i think it will be a very modest budget

38:40 - i think he's going to aim to get it passed on time

38:43 - whether or not that happens remains to be seen but

38:46 - as i mentioned earlier i think

38:48 - Mark agreed we've come to expect budgets to run past June though thirtieth.

38:52 - Mark what do you expect to see.

38:55 - Now they're being very

38:56 - close to the vest about the budget to release this year

39:00 - and to me that indicates that Charlie might be right i think that he wants to.

39:05 - Step

39:05 - put it

39:06 - on the first step forward that is very conciliatory

39:09 - and says look folks we can get this done

39:12 - however there are a couple of things that i know.

39:16 - Governor shapiro still has in mind

39:18 - he would like to take another run at raising the minimum wage

39:21 - not just from the perspective of providing a living wage to poor people

39:25 - let because it generates more money in terms of the taxes that that

39:29 - develops

39:31 - he also is talking about enacting a corporate tax reform

39:35 - proposal that would.

39:37 - Tax the conglomerates and the big.

39:39 - Corporations in a fair fashion in Pennsylvania even as we reduce

39:45 - the co corporate net income tax

39:46 - you can adjust

39:48 - the taxes for those who are avoiding tax payments

39:50 - altogether

39:51 - and then third watch for a

39:54 - push

39:55 - to once again.

39:56 - Legalize and tax marijuana legalized

40:01 - i

40:01 - skill games

40:03 - and tax them

40:04 - i think he's going to be looker for economic drivers

40:06 - so he can answer the question right out of the gate

40:09 - where is the money coming from

40:11 - and in terms of programs

40:13 - the only thing new that i'm gathering is.

40:16 - A

40:17 - program to deal with affordable housing

40:20 - it's a crying need in the state and i think he's

40:22 - going to take a shot at dealing with that this year

40:25 - do you think that this being an election year

40:27 - impacts what lawmakers are willing to vote for.

40:31 - Well sure i think politics is always the.

40:36 - The

40:37 - six hundred pound.

40:39 - Gorilla in the room

40:40 - and they've gotta be sensitive to it

40:43 - up but i think that earn it.

40:45 - Pennsylvania

40:47 - is believe it or not

40:48 - has shown some rationality

40:51 - and has shown that they can actually roll their sleeves up

40:54 - and work together and get some things done

40:57 - last year's budget took a long time to get finished but in the end.

41:01 - The Republicans scored a couple of victories on that.

41:05 - Energy either Reggie compaq

41:07 - the governor scored some victories on keeping the

41:10 - level of spending where he basically wanted it to

41:13 - so it is possible to give and take

41:15 - so i think politics.

41:18 - Requires that people act like adults

41:21 - and do their job

41:23 - and i think that it would benefit both parties

41:26 - politically if they do that.

41:29 - It's an election year you're going to have an election budget you're going to have an

41:32 - election budget process Mark is exactly right

41:36 - it's political

41:37 - and

41:37 - i think you'll probably get a budget passed relatively early

41:41 - with all the kind of

41:43 - bipartisan effort that

41:45 - Marc likes to chat about and

41:47 - that folks like to say i i think it will go relatively quickly.

41:52 - I think it is interesting though to note the Reggie thing again

41:55 - this was something that Josh shapiro had his foot in both buckets on

41:59 - from the get go he told business leaders

42:01 - and labor leaders he was against it

42:03 - he told environmentalists he was for it

42:06 - when the rubber met the road he wasn't quite sure what he wanted to do legally

42:10 - the legislature forced them into giving it up

42:12 - but they're going to try to bring it back under some other

42:15 - nomenclature.

42:18 - Remind have his own

42:20 - program to reduce emissions and indeed he's been

42:23 - focusing on that

42:25 - effort

42:26 - through private grants and loans and things like that and it's beginning to pay off.

42:31 - You can achieve a reduction in admissions and an increase in energy.

42:37 - Production

42:38 - without having to be apart of a large regional compact

42:43 - i for one.

42:45 - Always believed that that was simply a a

42:47 - back door tax

42:48 - on consumers

42:50 - and we were going to pay the price for that

42:52 - so i think

42:53 - frankly the Republicans did the right thing.

42:55 - In standing their ground on that and i think shapiro recognized that

42:59 - and said maybe we'll go about it another way

43:02 - that is an example in my view of being rational and

43:05 - working together and finding some common ground.

43:09 - While i give i give

43:11 - the tenant governor

43:12 - single a lot of credit on that because through

43:14 - the years he has been a supporter of the

43:16 - responsible development of natural gas in particular

43:19 - when many in his party

43:22 - wanted moratoriums in that kind of nonsense

43:25 - large single said now we ought to be responsibly developing natural gas

43:29 - it is the goldmine under our feet it would allow us

43:32 - to be a national and international leader in energy

43:35 - particularly at a time when these huge data centres

43:38 - are going to require massive amounts of energy

43:41 - it's a great opportunity for Pennsylvania.

43:44 - Now we talked to

43:45 - quite a bit about this being an election year

43:47 - house democrats have a one seat majority for the last two elections cycles the

43:50 - Republicans in the senate have a three c holds in the senate

43:53 - do you foresee any scenario where power shifts in either of those chambers.

43:58 - I don't think the power will shift in the senate i

44:00 - think there is a scenario under which it shifts in house

44:03 - it's a difficult path for the Republicans

44:06 - because there are so few

44:07 - seats that are actually in play Francine

44:09 - and

44:10 - the.

44:11 - Reinforcement process and other things have

44:13 - given us a legislator it's always going to be

44:16 - very narrowly divided.

44:18 - I think five seats right now that are open

44:21 - and up for special elections

44:22 - those are likely to be decided by the power by the party that held the power before.

44:27 - You

44:28 - are likely going to have a one seat

44:30 - situation going into the November elections

44:33 - you'd probably have a one or two seat.

44:35 - Difference one way or the other come January.

44:40 - I i disagree i think that the early signs are that there is a

44:45 - an awakening.

44:46 - Going on in the country

44:48 - that people are so repulsed by what they're seeing on the streets in our major cities

44:53 - and they're so disturbed by the chaos of somebody who's just changing the names of

44:57 - our monuments and Jerry down the east wing and.

45:00 - I think that it's having a

45:02 - really.

45:04 - Numbing effect on people in there they're just tired of it

45:08 - and i think that that is borne out by these special elections and

45:12 - the over performance of democrats all over the country

45:16 - i think that that number is going to hold in Pennsylvania

45:19 - and you may see some extraordinary results

45:22 - and Democratic when democrats were winning and

45:25 - traditionally republican seats

45:28 - too early to say that it's going to be a blue wave

45:31 - but the early signals are pointing in that direction

45:34 - if in fact national and international events.

45:38 - Continue the way they are

45:40 - i think it's going to have an impact in Pennsylvania in

45:42 - November and it's going to be positive for the democrats.

45:47 - As we head into the midterms what congressional

45:49 - seats are you looking at what looks vulnerable

45:52 - while the seats that folks have talked about are the president hand seat

45:55 - the.

45:56 - Ryan MacKenzie seat.

45:59 - The

46:00 - democrats fool's gold said Brian Fitzpatrick down in

46:03 - bucks county and then Scott Perry here in

46:06 - the midstate

46:07 - those are the four

46:08 - that

46:09 - the democrats are obviously looking at

46:11 - i think there are some democrats seats that Republicans can go after

46:15 - other one in Pittsburgh in particular but we'll have to wait and say

46:19 - i don't see huge shifts in the congressional delegation in Pennsylvania.

46:25 - I think we

46:26 - i think we could pick up at least two out of those four.

46:29 - Democratic seats that.

46:31 - Charlie is talking about.

46:34 - Fitzpatrick

46:35 - and Scott Perry.

46:37 - I think that they

46:38 - the opponents have come close

46:40 - in recent years

46:42 - and the situation has shifted a bit.

46:46 - I think that in a midterm election.

46:49 - For a year

46:50 - and

46:51 - in a party of a president who's increasingly unpopular

46:54 - i think that that makes those Republicans

46:58 - even more vulnerable

46:59 - so watch those two seats very carefully because i think that those

47:03 - get back into the Democratic fold this year.

47:06 - What are the most important issues that you'll be

47:08 - watching as we get closer to the near term elections

47:11 - it's always going to be the economy France saying there's no two ways about it every

47:15 - election ultimately boils down to people's pocketbooks

47:18 - and

47:18 - the economy right now is doing much much better

47:21 - Donald trump inherited a absolute mess from the bite administration

47:26 - and today you look at the

47:27 - stock market it's you know hovering around fifty

47:29 - thousand on the dow and seven thousand on the snp

47:33 - inflation is down

47:35 - prices are coming down

47:36 - and

47:37 - job creation is there

47:39 - i think that the economy is going to be

47:41 - a

47:42 - significant boost for the Republicans.

47:44 - Market get the last word.

47:47 - And

47:47 - i think that the economy is going to matter

47:50 - for sure

47:51 - but i think that the

47:53 - advantage

47:54 - is going to be for the democrats.

47:56 - Because

47:57 - you know notwithstanding what Charlie just told you.

48:00 - Trunk was in a pretty good position

48:02 - because biden had

48:04 - reduced inflation to three percent and it's currently three percent

48:08 - biden had created ten million jobs coming out of the pandemic

48:12 - and handed trump

48:14 - a golden opportunity to move forward

48:16 - so i think that

48:18 - him taking credit for things that happened long before him is

48:21 - inappropriate

48:23 - but when it's going to happen going forward is that Josh shapiro

48:26 - is gone to be able to boost the economy in the state

48:30 - by strategic investments

48:31 - there's already been ten billion dollars worth of investment commitments that the

48:36 - governor has announced in the last year.

48:39 - In things

48:40 - like

48:41 - life sciences and data centers and biotechnology

48:45 - so i think he's got some cards to play that are going to

48:48 - make the economy

48:50 - really hung in Pennsylvania and he will

48:53 - justifiably take credit for it.

48:55 - I guess if Denmark single former lieutenant governor and acting governor and Charlie

48:59 - theresia of quantum communications gentlemen thank you both for your time

49:03 - great to be with you.

49:05 - Thank you

49:06 - earlier case and spoke with me Matthew nettle director of the Pennsylvania

49:09 - independent fiscal office for state revenue update.

49:15 - We're joined today by Matthew nadal director of the Pennsylvania independent fiscal

49:18 - office how was the state's economy performing since

49:21 - your office released it's gin production projections.

49:25 - While i would characterize it as

49:27 - an over performance so back in June

49:30 - we had assumed that the terrorists would

49:32 - take effect and that they would drive up inflation

49:35 - and drive up unemployment

49:37 - wiped out what we're finding is inflation has.

49:40 - Not kicked up as much as we had

49:42 - an appointment didn't increase as much as we got.

49:45 - I would characterize it that things are holding up quite well the

49:48 - consumer spending is very strong our sales tax are up six per cent year over year

49:53 - which is double the growth rate than we had expected back in June.

49:57 - Now you mentioned tariffs already

49:58 - what effect has federal spending cuts and particularly

50:02 - attrition from the

50:03 - federal workforce had on Pennsylvania.

50:07 - Yeah what we observe in the data that there was a

50:10 - decline or reduction of the federal workforce to about nine thousand individuals

50:14 - and most of those are based on data acquired

50:17 - from resignations and most of those

50:19 - appear

50:21 - entered into retirement.

50:23 - Make compensation claims for federal workers did pick up by

50:26 - six hundred

50:27 - but based on what we can see from the data

50:30 - there were about nine thousand deferred resignations

50:32 - most of those individuals retire

50:35 - and those that did not

50:36 - look like most of them did find employment elsewhere so that's a good outcome.

50:41 - Of course on what will happen with the state's rainy

50:43 - day fund by the end of the year what will remain.

50:47 - We're projecting based on our most recent

50:49 - update that revenues which we just put out.

50:53 - Later

50:54 - excuse me earlier last week

50:55 - that the general fund surplus would be about eight hundred million

50:59 - the rainy day fund surplus would be about seven and a half billion

51:03 - at the end of this fiscal year

51:05 - and last year state budget governorship the pair have proposed several new revenues

51:09 - legalizing recreational marijuana

51:11 - taxing skills games are closing the Delaware loophole

51:13 - none of those were approved by the legislature

51:16 - if we are unable to approve new revenues in the next year's

51:20 - budget what happens what remains of the rainy day fund what happens then.

51:25 - There are projections and

51:27 - revenue and spending projections the rainy day fund we think will be cut more than

51:30 - half down to about three point four billion dollars so

51:34 - it will need to be used

51:36 - we think that even with new revenue sources such as the ones you mention that the

51:40 - rainy day fund will need to be tapped to a limited extent

51:43 - how much will depend on me

51:45 - revenues that are approved as you noted.

51:47 - You know that there is an unexpected surge in tax revenues the latter half of two

51:51 - thousand and twenty five what do you think is responsible for that.

51:55 - We think that the stock market in particular is a major contributor to that the stock

52:01 - market was up about seventeen percent on average and

52:05 - it does appear that

52:06 - upper middle income and higher income consumers who are benefiting from

52:10 - the increase in the stock market are driving a lot of

52:12 - the games that we're seeing that's what the data suggest.

52:15 - There's also note your report about sports betting why do you think that revenue from

52:20 - sports betting exceeded expectations this past year.

52:23 - Yeah a very strong increase in sports wagering thirty four percent tax rate

52:28 - a couple of items too in particular we just think it's more prevalent you know

52:32 - download we gotta move the device is a lot of advertising

52:36 - but also in the fourth quarter of last year.

52:40 - Pennsylvania residents of course they'd like to bet

52:42 - on the local teams on the steelers and the eagles

52:44 - there were a couple of tough losses where the

52:47 - house keeps more of the the beddings and then of course they pay tax upon that so

52:50 - it's really a combination of the two

52:53 - just more prevalence and the outcome on some of the games.

52:56 - There's also a sliding report entitled healthcare

52:59 - drives payroll gains can explain what you learned there.

53:02 - Yeah what we're seeing

53:04 - in the jobs gains for Pennsylvania both in the last five or six years and in the

53:09 - immediately preceding year

53:11 - all of the job gains that we're seeing on net

53:14 - are driven by healthcare

53:15 - and there's many different forms it could be outpatient hospitals home healthcare

53:20 - but overall

53:22 - today are contributing to the gains that we're seeing and

53:25 - on that note

53:26 - and these labor market is

53:28 - one of the concerns we have is a bit stagnant

53:30 - we think we're picking up about twenty eight thousand jobs year over year

53:34 - based on the latest data

53:36 - that's a fairly low level so the healthcare sector is doing very well

53:40 - other sectors we think struggling a bit

53:42 - in particular for new graduates coming out of

53:45 - college it is with general degrees we think it'll be

53:47 - very challenging coming up in the spring.

53:50 - You're important that's one point three revenue one point

53:52 - three percent revenue growth but also four point five

53:54 - four point six percent expenditure growth what does that

53:57 - tell you about the future outlook for the state's economy.

54:02 - Yeah i think it will be very challenging the economy even though it's performing

54:05 - i'd say decently

54:07 - there some cost pressures built into the budget in particular healthcare and that's

54:10 - really driving up a lot of the costs of that state's pacing

54:14 - and also some of the federal changes the states will have to pick up more of those

54:17 - costs and backfill down as much as on snap medicaid

54:21 - so definitely a lot of challenges going forward i'm going to spend side.

54:24 - As we speak governor Joshua Perry will be presenting his budget address

54:28 - live on February third

54:29 - what should lawmakers take from this report as they begin

54:32 - considering and crafting the next fiscal year's budget.

54:36 - And i would emphasize is just to to look at the.

54:40 - Resources we have available that is

54:42 - the rainy day fund now and

54:44 - start to think about how we might

54:46 - address the structural deficit we think that structural deficit

54:50 - and asked the devas that's that's permanent that's not affected by the economy

54:54 - is about five and a half billion dollars.

54:56 - So that's what really needs to be addressed long term.

55:00 - Both on the spending and on the revenue side so

55:03 - how will we think about that

55:05 - the last thing that we want to do is to to rush into it and not you know give it some

55:09 - thought and and research it and have discussion about it

55:12 - so now's the time to do that and address that long term deficit

55:16 - we have

55:16 - speaking with Matthew noodle director of Pennsylvania's

55:18 - independent fiscal office thanks for joining us.

55:21 - Thank you.

55:23 - That concludes today's show Jonas smart for reactions to the governor's budget

55:27 - proposal let's say climate of one plus strategies

55:30 - and builds a week former state speaker of the house

55:33 - that's tomorrow alive

55:34 - at eleven am.

55:35 - In France and shirts are thank you for watching.